Thread by @JayCostTWS, I am really struck by how the polls have given a false [...]

I am really struck by how the polls have given a false impression of public opinion over the last several years. Trump got about 47% of the vote. During his entire tenure, his job approval was only at that level once.

You see something similar in the generic congressional ballot, where the Republicans got a substantially higher share than the polls ever would have predicted over the last 18 months.

Likewise, polls in most of the midwestern states had substantially underestimated Trump since the spring. Here's Pennsylvania.

Here's Wisconsin.

Here's Michigan.

In case you're wondering why this is relevant, it is because presidents usually get their job approval, or thereabouts. https://twitter.com/JayCostTWS/status/1330226195703738369

https://twitter.com/JayCostTWS/status/1330226195703738369

And yes there are plenty of explanations for why this was so. I'm more interested that is *was* so.

Like, I've been addicted to polling for 20 years because I figured it was the best read on public opinion. Now, though?

And remember this is an average. A *lot* of pollsters never had Trump in the ballpark of 47 percent.

I'm not really interested in naming and shaming pollsters who got it wrong. This is a tough biz, and lord knows I've screwed the pooch in the past (see 2012!).

I'm just struck that I've perhaps been operating under a false impression for a while.

Also this. I'd add Obamacare, which polled *terribly* but did not stop Obama from winning reelection comfortably in 2012. https://twitter.com/AdamMDG/status/1330228518605778944?s=20