Some updated thoughts on the Jerami Grant news after having a night to sleep on it. 1/

First off, the contract JG got from Detroit is crazy. I think his value to the Nuggets was probably $12-14 million / year. Nuggets going up to $16-18 would've been a bummer. $20 mil would've hurt bad.

The big risk with keeping guys in free agency is that sometimes opposing teams do irrational things. 3/$60 mil classifies as crazy to me. That being said, I'm told the Nuggets really were willing to match. JG declined, wanting a bigger role. That's a tough break.

The team being caught off guard is the real killer to this equation. Had they seen this coming, they could've altered plans. Maybe pursued Covington or a player who provides the versatility that JG brought, being able to defend 3s and 4s & taking some defensive burden off of MPJ.

That being said, I've said for weeks that there were some concerning numbers with Grant. The Nuggets were consistently a negative in raw +/- and net rating, including in lineups that featured him alongside Jokic (-1.5), Murray (-0.1), and both (-0.5).

What Grant provided the Nuggets above all else was the ability to place MPJ defensively against the weakest forward since Grant could guard SFs and PFs. This was most evident in the playoffs when Grant took on assignments against Kawhi and PG.

That alone leaves the Nuggets vulnerable next season and makes it very possible that the Nuggets take a step back in the playoffs because of it. LeBron, Luka, Kawhi, PG, maybe even Ingram. Plenty of large wings out west. Who guards them?

I think there is a really good chance Grant's loss doesn't hurt Denver much in the regular season. JaMychal Green doesn't have Grant's positional flexibility but he provides better defense than Grant at the PF spot.

The Nuggets can also slide Barton down to SF and move MPJ to PF. Those lineups are obviously very vulnerable to teams with elite scoring wings but in the regular season, it will outscore most opponents and will likely be some of the best offensive lineups of the Jokic era.

The loss of Grant places more emphasis on MPJ's role on the team. Offensively, he's ready. He should elevate Denver's offense to entirely new heights and Malone can no longer slow play his development. The Nuggets are all in on MPJ this year.

The question remains whether or not he can defend at an NBA level. Once again, this is probably more of a playoff issue than a regular season one. The Nuggets crushed with MPJ in the month of January and he was all-seeding round for a reason. The script flipped in the playoffs.

This also opens up an avenue for Bol to get on the court. I don't think a title contending team will want to rely so heavily on two huge variables (MPJ's defense, Bol's everything) but it's probably smart to see what you have in Bol before the trade deadline.

And that is the final point. DEN should be good in the regular season. If they feel their defensive weaknesses without Grant aren't improving over the course of the season, they should be able to make a move at the deadline to provide more flexibility going into the playoffs.

All in all, I think the shock of Grant's departure is a bit more painful than the loss itself. It still hurts the Nuggets and will especially be painful in the playoffs. I think the team's regular season ceiling remains mostly intact, their playoff foor takes a hit.