Exactly a month from today is the start of the Christmas holiday period. The Case Fatality Rate is estimated to be around 2.2% for the U.S. according to Johns Hopkins. But lets keep the math simple, and use 1% as a proxy for the one-month time lagged death.

Every 100,000 cases, from today until post Thanksgiving will roughly translate into at *Least* 1,000 people dying during the holiday week of Christmas. The number is likely to be far higher, because case counts and testing is already broken.

So from December 20th-December 27th, I think the floor, the absolute best case scenario right now, is 14,000 Americans dying in that week alone. Thats, in my opinion, the BEST and most optimistic case.

Best and most optimistic because its too late to flatten the christmas mortality curve, these deaths are set in stone. It CAN go higher, however, as case counts continue to rise (and almost certainly will thanks to us being fucking stupid for Thanksgiving), and hospitals

are stretched even more thinly, leading the case fatality rate to once again start increasing, instead of falling.

My gut feeling having been playing with, tracking, and predicting this data for what 10 months now (yall give me my props, cause i been dead accurate since February), is that were closer to 3,000 dead a day by Christmas.

So lets call it 20,000 dead Americans. Just over Christmas break. Lets say each fatality leaves behind, 4 or so, survivors...put another way thats a LOT of ruined Christmases.

Because its not just the people dying, and their families. Its gonna be the ER nurses and Doctors who have to work 36-48 hour shifts over christmas to save yalls dumb asses. And THAT shit aint ending at Christmas. Or New Years, or February, or March.

Point of all of that, those 20,000 holiday deaths are basically set in stone. Its already effectively happened. That die has been cast. We still have a CHANCE to make the numbers drop in the month after that, but only if we start now. Your government wont save ya, you gotta do it