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several months back, i posited that the low covid deaths in pac rim could not possibly be from lockdowns or masks.
the differential was simply too large, the policies across the region too varied, and the results to internally similar.
it has to be pre-existing resistance.
the differential was simply too large, the policies across the region too varied, and the results to internally similar.
it has to be pre-existing resistance.
i'd like to now revisit this hypothesis as quite a bit of new evidence has emerged and i think it has been increasingly supportive of this idea.
the gaps are simply too large and too geographically consistent.
i am becoming convinced that this is the only plausible explanation.
the gaps are simply too large and too geographically consistent.
i am becoming convinced that this is the only plausible explanation.
i'm going to use deaths as a metric because testing in asia has been very low in many places (1-10% of western per capita levels) and trying to adjust for that makes gibberish out of the data.
with the exception of microstate French Poly, all have 1/10th to 1/1000 the deaths of the west.
there is just no way that masks and distancing magically worked that much better in places with such stunning population density
provocatively, pac rim is 85% lower than rest of asia
there is just no way that masks and distancing magically worked that much better in places with such stunning population density
provocatively, pac rim is 85% lower than rest of asia
but the step function from asia and africa to the west is stunning.
deaths jump by 50X from the pac rim.
but behavior was not that different.
peru and argentina locked down hard and early, before any deaths. both mandated masks.
both are world leaders in per capita deaths
deaths jump by 50X from the pac rim.
but behavior was not that different.
peru and argentina locked down hard and early, before any deaths. both mandated masks.
both are world leaders in per capita deaths
this is simply not NPI's. it has to be something biome specific and generalized.
it's certainly not that there was no covid in the region.
these studies showed IgM/IgG sars-2 seroprevalance in japan rise from 5.8% to 46% over the summer. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.21.20198796v1
it's certainly not that there was no covid in the region.
these studies showed IgM/IgG sars-2 seroprevalance in japan rise from 5.8% to 46% over the summer. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.21.20198796v1
yet japan has 15 deaths per million. they also never really locked down. this simply cannot be some cultural quirk about "being better at washing your hands."
you don't get <1 death per mm in 6 countries with hand sanitizer or masks while others doing same get 1000.
you don't get <1 death per mm in 6 countries with hand sanitizer or masks while others doing same get 1000.
this looks to be biome specific pre-existing immunity.
there is LOTS of data on pre-existing cross resistance in 40-80% of the population.
t-cell mediated prior resistance was widespread. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1285558913845399552?s=20
there is LOTS of data on pre-existing cross resistance in 40-80% of the population.
t-cell mediated prior resistance was widespread. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1285558913845399552?s=20
but i got some real pushback on "yeah, but it would never be this localized."
this would seem to definitively argue otherwise.
2 african countries had sig levels of antibody response to sars-2 in blood from before the epidemic.
the US did not. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1326178915606552577?s=20
this would seem to definitively argue otherwise.
2 african countries had sig levels of antibody response to sars-2 in blood from before the epidemic.
the US did not. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1326178915606552577?s=20
this is clear evidence of biome specific pre-existing immunity that was generated by previous exposure to something similar enough to sars-2 that it generated actual antibodies, not just t-cell recognition.
this can only be from previous virus that was in africa but not in US.
this can only be from previous virus that was in africa but not in US.
this looks to be a convincing and parsimonious explanation for the data. it fits very well and i suspect if one were to go looking in asia for pre-2019 blood samples, that this test could be repeated and confimed.
this strikes me as a worthwhile study to do.
this strikes me as a worthwhile study to do.
frankly, i'm surprised it has not already been done.
it's REALLY important. if we're going to try to figure out what works, we need to focus on what's possible.
"have had lots of previous exposure to sars-like viruses" is not an option one can adopt now.
it's REALLY important. if we're going to try to figure out what works, we need to focus on what's possible.
"have had lots of previous exposure to sars-like viruses" is not an option one can adopt now.
but ignoring it is dangerous. if you miss the key variable when assessing what worked, you wind up doing bad post hoc ergo propter hoc analyses.
you look for "masks" or "shelter in place" and look for examples to bolster your case while ignoring those that don't.
you look for "masks" or "shelter in place" and look for examples to bolster your case while ignoring those that don't.
you wind up missing the real picture.
in this vein, i'd like to address a few possible confounds to my hypothesis.
1. different counting. most of asia and africa are using the WHO covid death measure. it results in MUCH lower reported deaths than those used in the west.
in this vein, i'd like to address a few possible confounds to my hypothesis.
1. different counting. most of asia and africa are using the WHO covid death measure. it results in MUCH lower reported deaths than those used in the west.
based on this analysis (which looks correct to me) US deaths would be ~45% lower if we followed this standard instead of reporting "death with positive covid PCR test."
this is likely significant, but 50% drop in western deaths still leaves 25X variance https://twitter.com/tlowdon/status/1309891823339360256?s=20
this is likely significant, but 50% drop in western deaths still leaves 25X variance https://twitter.com/tlowdon/status/1309891823339360256?s=20
that's still far too wide a gap to just be "adherence to NPI strategies" especially given how polyglot the pac rim responses were.
2. genetics. this issue has been repeatedly raised and may have some bearing esp around ACE2 receptor expression.
https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1329524212583837696?s=20
2. genetics. this issue has been repeatedly raised and may have some bearing esp around ACE2 receptor expression.
https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1329524212583837696?s=20
but overall, i'm struggling to find this persuasive as an explanation for the pac rim. this happened long enough ago that such genes would be expected to be widespread in the asian diaspora.
but, to my knowledge, such immunity has not accrued to US asians.
but, to my knowledge, such immunity has not accrued to US asians.
that would seem to pose some challenges for the idea that the low pac rim death rate is predominantly genetic in nature.
3. age/diet/obesity:
all possible confounds, but quite varied across the pac rim and i have not been able to see any clear pattern (though i have not drilled into it enough to really assess with precision so it does seem a possible contributor)
all possible confounds, but quite varied across the pac rim and i have not been able to see any clear pattern (though i have not drilled into it enough to really assess with precision so it does seem a possible contributor)
but, at the end of the day, "pre-existing resistance" really does seem to fit the data best.
we know it exists, we know it's biome specific, at least in some cases, we know it's highly effective when present, and the geographic and population percolation of the pac rim fits.
we know it exists, we know it's biome specific, at least in some cases, we know it's highly effective when present, and the geographic and population percolation of the pac rim fits.
even in asia, as you get further from the pac rim, per capital deaths rise by 6-7X. that's an awfully big jump to just be behavior and the outcomes on the pac rim are awfully uniform despite wide behavioral variance.
i cannot see a more plausible explanation.
i cannot see a more plausible explanation.
and this is important as it informs policy choices globally.
if i'm correct, there is nothing to mimic.
this is heavily supported by other data.
masks, lockdowns, travel bans, it's all ineffective.
covid hits seaonally/regionally. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1329061542571216900?s=20
if i'm correct, there is nothing to mimic.
this is heavily supported by other data.
masks, lockdowns, travel bans, it's all ineffective.
covid hits seaonally/regionally. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1329061542571216900?s=20
when it's your turn, you get covid. everyone thought masks and SIP were working in peru and argentina, then, they stopped.
it did not stop disease spread in japan, seroprev looks very high.
something just stopped it from being severe/deadly.
that's immunity, not NPI.
it did not stop disease spread in japan, seroprev looks very high.
something just stopped it from being severe/deadly.
that's immunity, not NPI.
so let's stop making the same mistakes over and over again as out panic to "do something" sets off another down-spiral of self-harm.
it's not helping.
it never did. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1266747365609750528?s=20
it's not helping.
it never did. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1266747365609750528?s=20
even militaries have repeatedly failed. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1273737005361315840?s=20
there is a reason that all the longstanding international pandemic guidelines contra indicated lockdowns and masks.
we knew this did not work. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1280990976694083585?s=20
we knew this did not work. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1280990976694083585?s=20
we threw this all out the window to take a $10 trillion joyride with the global economy and the lives and livelihoods of billions of people.
this was never "the science"
so let's stop this derangement.
it's gone much too far already.
this was never "the science"
so let's stop this derangement.
it's gone much too far already.
addendum:
this was my original piece on this from july. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1280212958392446977?s=20
this was my original piece on this from july. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1280212958392446977?s=20
