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After news of lockdown leaked on 30 October, something changed in England. Right across the country, people started to go out
Over the next five days, movement surged in towns and cities
A short thread on a mass phenomenon https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-how-englands-lockdown-leak-created-surge-of-social-activity-that-may-have-spread-the-virus-12137501
Over the next five days, movement surged in towns and cities
A short thread on a mass phenomenon https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-how-englands-lockdown-leak-created-surge-of-social-activity-that-may-have-spread-the-virus-12137501
Using Google data, it's possible to track movement in different regions of the UK
Looking at the period between the leak and lockdown starting, the clarity of the trend is striking
Take Norwich, Derby and Blackburn with Darwen. Three very different areas, one unified response
Looking at the period between the leak and lockdown starting, the clarity of the trend is striking
Take Norwich, Derby and Blackburn with Darwen. Three very different areas, one unified response
With some notable exceptions (looking at you Cornwall), the whole of England responded in this way
Take Southampton, Cambridge and Hull. Again, three very different areas. But in this period they moved as one
Take Southampton, Cambridge and Hull. Again, three very different areas. But in this period they moved as one
What were people doing? We don't know for sure, of course, but Google data does give us an indication
The destinations that spiked during this period were what Google defines as "retail and recreation". That is, shops, cafes, restaurants etc
The destinations that spiked during this period were what Google defines as "retail and recreation". That is, shops, cafes, restaurants etc
You might say, well, what did you expect? But there's no inevitability about any of this
This chart shows movement in Glasgow after restrictions (albeit softer ones) were announced there
Compare the reaction - or lack of one - to a similar-sized city in England
This chart shows movement in Glasgow after restrictions (albeit softer ones) were announced there
Compare the reaction - or lack of one - to a similar-sized city in England
Different datasets show an identical pattern
According to Citymapper, journeys in London jumped 10 percentage points in the five days before lockdown, reaching their highest point since March 16
In Birmingham and Manchester it was the same
According to Citymapper, journeys in London jumped 10 percentage points in the five days before lockdown, reaching their highest point since March 16
In Birmingham and Manchester it was the same
Did all this movement cause a rise in infections? That question is hard to answer. There's no obvious link with cases or hospital admissions
But given the connection between social activity and infections, government scientists say it's a worry https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1329025111328952322?s=19
But given the connection between social activity and infections, government scientists say it's a worry https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1329025111328952322?s=19
The REACT study showed a dip then a jump in cases in the days before lockdown, something the researchers put down to the influence of rumours about lockdown
But it's very hard to be sure. In all honesty we may never know
But it's very hard to be sure. In all honesty we may never know
The question that preoccupies me is whether this marks a change in public response to restrictions on movement
After the last lockdown ended, mobility took a long time to recover. Is there any chance it does the same thing on December [insert date here]?
After the last lockdown ended, mobility took a long time to recover. Is there any chance it does the same thing on December [insert date here]?
If future restrictions are preceded by surges in movement, will they have any benefit? Will lockdowns become impossible to introduce?
Professor Paul Hunter believes they might
Professor Paul Hunter believes they might
Needless to say I have no idea what's going to happen, but I think this trend bears careful watching
The holidays are coming. How that pans out will define the next few months
The holidays are coming. How that pans out will define the next few months
One last thought then I'm getting back to the weekend: if you're curious about the communication side and the reasons why people in Scotland might be following the spirit rather than the letter of the law, this thread and report are interesting reading https://twitter.com/LizStokoe/status/1328403894452580360?s=19
