Trump lost the election because he lost five states which he won in 2016. These states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Some Trump supporters are convinced that he somehow couldn’t have really lost.

Let’s apply some critical thinking here, shall we?

Let’s go through these states one by one and look at the way these states have voted over the past six elections, since 2000.

And let’s also look at what else happened in these states’ elections since Trump took office in 2017.

SPOILER: The fact Trump lost makes PERFECT sense.

1) Arizona

Here are the approximate margins by which the GOP candidate won or lost in AZ:

2000: Bush won AZ by 6.28%
2004: Bush won AZ by 10.45%
2008: McCain won AZ by 8.45%
2012: Romney won AZ by 9.03%
2016: Trump won AZ by 3.5%
2020: Trump lost AZ by 0.31%

Yes, this is the first time since 1996 that Arizona went blue.

But if you look at the trend, this is the second election in a row where the Republican candidate did worse in Arizona than in the previous election.

Since Trump won in 2016, the following things happened in Arizona:

2018 - The GOP lost a Senate seat
2018 - The GOP lost a House seat
2020 - The GOP lost another Senate seat

Is it a surprise Trump lost Arizona? Not that surprising if you look at the trend.

1) Georgia

Here are the approximate margins by which the GOP candidate won or lost in GA:

2000: Bush won GA by 11.69%
2004: Bush won GA by 16.60%
2008: McCain won GA by 5.20%
2012: Romney won GA by 7.82%
2016: Trump won GA by 5.09%
2020: Trump lost GA by 0.26%

Like Arizona, this is the second straight election in which the GOP candidate did worse than four years beforehand.

Since Trump took office, the GOP lost a House seat in Georgia. And the 2018 Georgia Gubernatorial election was unusually close for the state.

(I messed up by listing Georgia number 1. But since Twitter does not have an edit button and I’ve had a long week, that’s just too bad).

3) Michigan

Here are the approximate margins by which the GOP candidate won or lost in MI:

2000: Bush lost MI by 5.13%
2004: Bush lost MI by 3.42%
2008: McCain lost MI by 16.44%
2012: Romney lost MI by 9.50%
2016: Trump won MI by 0.23%
2020: Trump lost MI by 2.68%

So Michigan went blue for five of the last six elections. Trump won by an extremely minimal margin in 2016.

Can anyone really be shocked that Trump lost Michigan in 2020?

Since Trump won in 2016, the GOP lost the Governorship in Michigan and lost two House seats in 2018.

It shouldn’t be a surprise that Michigan went blue. Like it usually does.

4) Pennsylvania

Here are the approximate margins by which the GOP candidate won or lost in PA:

2000: Bush lost PA by 4.17%
2004: Bush lost PA by 2.50%
2008: McCain lost PA by 1.32%
2012: Romney lost PA by 5.38%
2016: Trump won PA by 0.72%
2020: Trump lost PA by 1.18%

Like Michigan, Pennsylvania has gone blue five of the last six elections. And like Michigan, Trump barely won it in 2016.

It’s not surprising that PA went blue again. Again, like it usually does.

Since 2018, the GOP has lost 3 House seats in Pennsylvania.

5) Wisconsin

Here are the approximate margins by which the GOP candidate won or lost in WI:

2000: Bush lost WI by 0.22%
2004: Bush lost WI by 0.38%
2008: McCain lost WI by 13.91%
2012: Romney lost WI by 6.94%
2016: Trump won WI by 0.77%
2020: Trump lost WI by 0.62%

Wisconsin is a little different from these other states because it has long had close elections. Even though Democrats won the state in five of the past six elections, the state has been decided by less than a point in four of the last six elections.

Since Trump took office, the GOP lost the Governorship in Wisconsin.

Democrats have won three close Presidential elections in Wisconsin in the past 2 years. And Trump has won one close Presidential election in WI in 2016.

Not a stunner.

These five states, whose behavior in 2020 is perfectly in line with the trends and patterns that these states have exhibited over the last six elections, are why Trump lost.

It’s just not that hard, folks.

Numbers don’t lie, guys. But Donald Trump and his surrogates do.

A couple more quick points, since some people seem to have a hard time believing that 2 and 2 could possibly equal 4 ...

Trump lost Arizona in 2020 after doing worse in AZ than he did in 2016 and doing worse in 2016 than Romney did in 2012. Must be a sinister reason, right?

Well, Obama did better in AZ in 2008 than Kerry did in 2004. McCain was the Senior Senator from AZ. He didn’t cry foul.

Trump lost Michigan, which he won by a puny 10,704 votes in 2016. And his surrogates want to pretend he couldn’t have lost legitimately.

Romney got blown up in Michigan in 2012. And his dad used to be the Governor. But he didn’t allege some non-existent conspiracy. He manned up.

Trump lost Wisconsin, which he won in a squeaker in 2016 and lost by a similar margin in 2020. And he cries foul.

Romney and Ryan lost Wisconsin by sizable margin (for WI) in 2012. And Ryan was a high profile congressman from that very state. But no claims of fraud.

Trump stands alone as one who obviously loses an election in which there are no credible claims of widespread fraud and in which the states where he lost make perfect sense when you look at the trends and the other elections that took place there in recent years.

I am putting together some visualizations for the above data and will finish putting them together later. But here's Arizona. The GOP was on a downward trend there over the past few cycles. And it finally cost Trump the state.

There’s another thing that these five states which Trump won in 2016 but lost in 2020 have in common. They’re all home to some of America’s largest metropolitan areas.

What’s in a large metro area? Not just big cities. But, surrounding all of those big cities, lots of SUBURBS.

(I know I’m bouncing around from subtopic to subtopic a little at the moment, but bear with me).

Looking at the Arizona chart again (which I will revise), it’s obvious that Trump fell worse in Arizona in 2016 than he did in 2020. He just managed to pull it out in 2016.

But you take the general cratering trend of the GOP in Arizona, the fact they lost BOTH Senate seats and a House seat and then there’s that matter of Trump picking on John McCain for half a year after he died, how can anybody seriously be surprised Trump finally lost Arizona?

Another point: look at who won the most recent statewide elections in these five states which Trump lost this year:

Arizona - GOP Governor, 2 Dem Senators

Georgia - GOP Governor, 2 GOP Senators

Michigan - Dem Governor, 2 Dem Senators

Pennsylvania - Dem Governor, 1 Senator from each party

Wisconsin - Dem Governor, 1 Senator from each party

Arizona and Georgia are once-red states that have been drifting blue over the course of the last few elections.

Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are states that have usually gone blue over the past three decades but which Trump managed to win by a narrow margin in 2016.

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are among the few states in the country that are represented by US Senators from both parties.

Pennsylvania and Michigan have US House delegations that are EXACTLY split even between the two parties (9-9 in PA and 7-7 in MI).

So in this election, Trump lost the electoral college by losing two long-term red states that he didn’t win by much in 2016 and which had shown big signs of trending blue. And he lost the three states which Republicans almost always lose but which he managed to barely win in 16.

There is ZERO mystery in this election.

If you are trying to rationalize Trump’s loss with crazy far-flung conspiracy theories because you didn’t believe he could lose, please log off Facebook and stop listening to liars and lunatics. And just look at the numbers. It’s not hard.

Here's a better set of charts which explains why nobody should be surprised that Trump lost.

Start with Arizona. In 2016, Trump only won the state by 3.5 points. After he won, the Dems lost one Senate seat, then a House seat and then another Senate seat. And the McCain thing.

Georgia. In 2016, Trump won by only 5.09%. In 2018, the Governor's race was very competitive. GOP lost a House seat in 2018 and another one in 2020. Look at the trend line.

Michigan. The only time in the recent decades where the Republican won MI in a Presidential race was in 2016, when Trump barely won. Since he won, the GOP lost the Governorship and two House seats. And Michigan went back to being blue. Like it usually is. Close. But blue.

Pennsylvania. Like Michigan, Trump's 2016 win was the exception, not the rule. Since he won, the GOP lost 3 House seats in the state. And the state returned to being blue again (in Presidential races) at least for the moment.

Wisconsin. Close contests in the state more often than not. Trump managed the rare Republican win in the state in 2016. Since then, the GOP lost the Governorship (and I forgot to mention that the GOP also lost the Governorship in Michigan since Trump won as well). It flipped back

No part of this is remotely mysterious or hard to understand.