THREAD (uh oh)

A few nights ago I tweeted about the vaccine and went viral (the irony!). I've since received quite a bit of hate mail, all along the lines of "don't tell me what to do ya doofus, I miss my friends". And that's actually pretty fair. I miss mine too. I'll elab. [1] https://twitter.com/jessecase/status/1329122140440854530

I wasn't telling you what to do, not my thing. I was telling you how it's gonna be. [2]

I'm thrilled at the vaccine. Cloud 9. We have a chance, a real one, to not only control but possibly eradicate this virus. Researchers all over the globe have worked together for months on end to do this immunology work. I'm proudly one of them. (the Dolly location, howdy!). [3]

It's a medical breakthrough and global effort that doesn't have a recent rival. For the skeptics, I could get into the weeds about naïve T cells and S-protein structure and nanolipid suspension formulas (big boring words!), but legit who cares. Here's what you need to know: [4]

1. It works yo!!!! 2. It's freakishly safe (the only future-unknown being when you need a booster, with thousands of trial participants months ahead of us for warning. They stay in the studies). 3. It is 2 shots. 4. YOU ARE NOT IMMUNE UNTIL 6 WEEKS AFTER YOUR FIRST SHOT. [5]

Here's why that info matters: Despite this wonderful outcome, if people think it's magic and they're instantly immune after dose 1, they'll ACT immune and will go catch Covid. Millions of them. No vaccine is instant, but most aren't given during uncontrolled pandemics. [6]

Despite the obvious potential tragedy there, several will claim the vaccine doesn't work, or even worse, that the vaccine itself gave them Covid (it contains literally zero Covid). This misinformation will spread, per usual. And we can't afford it. Not with this one. [7]

False correlation is the root of all vaccine skepticism (eg - your child gets their usual MMR around the time usual autism diagnoses happen, BOOM conspiracy). And with a 2 dose drug in a pandemic, it will be rampant. We have to stop it before it starts this time. [8]

Even at 95% efficacy (thrilled) this misinformation affects you and you need a fully vaccinated public around you for this one. Here's why: [9]

We don't test efficacy by giving you a vaccine and then giving you Covid to see what happens. That's called a Battle Trial and thankfully it's been a federal crime since the 1970s (The US has a HORRID history with clinical trials, all illegal now, but an uphill info climb). [10]

We test it by measuring thousands of variables against a control group, further enhanced by the 50/50 split being national, not per test site, and measuring outbreaks per site city, participant exposure, and on and on. Countless antibody tests. It works (!!!), but the caveat:[11]

This means efficacy is the effect UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. And we are under WEIRD CONDITIONS. Meaning, it is 95% effective in a society where we are all in masks and socially distanced. Is it that effective in a crowded bar when someone sneezes in your face every 5 minutes? [12]

Can your fancy new antibodies withstand that much exposure, day after day? Unmasked, crowded? That many viral loads to the face (stop snickering). Maybe. But we can't afford to find out. It's not a gamble worth making. [13]

So, life can't quite change just yet. 95% efficacy is enough to COMPLETELY kick Covid's ass and leave it dead on our streets. WITH this lifestyle. Together. But we have to use those tools to actually rid the virus from the community, not just armor ourselves as individuals. [14]

We owe it to those that can't have the vax. The vax comes first and we continue as we have been, for a short while. THEN the numbers come crashing down and THEN we all get to go to concerts and make out with strangers and have orgies at a buffet or whatever. In that order. [15]

This is YOUR drug and you funded it (if you paid over $750 in taxes). It's yours. This is THE end of this. But we can't mess this up. Next Fall you can lick all the doorknobs you want. You can have several extremely packed dance parties, I promise. But be patient. [16]

This has been the most transparent drug development in history. The genome is open-source. It's yours. We just have to do this right. The future is extremely bright. We just have to do the thing. We got this. Let's not crash at the finish line. /end