Covid Epi Weekly Thread: Worser and Worser, Every Week

Cases increasing exponentially in most of US; current epicenter including increasing hospitalizations, deaths is in midwest. Likely half million new infections/day. In Dakotas, an estimated 1 in 11 people have Covid.

1/10

Test positivity increased 10.8%→11.9%. @youyanggu nowcasting 3.3 infections/diagnosed case. Tho not all people estimated to have illness are infectious (max. infectivity before and 5-7 days into illness), nationally ~1 in 100 people infectious today. https://covid19-projections.com  2/10

Highest hospitalizations ever in US. Deaths increasing. Further increases inevitable - but continued increases are not (more on this later). Midwest is a crescendo. Northeast increasing. South never decreased a lot, now increasing. West increasing. https://bit.ly/3kQONPy  3/10

Hospitalizations are increasing steadily. Already many hospitals stretched; likely we’ll see another 30,000+ increase in coming weeks. Scarcest resource: trained healthcare staff. PPE remains insufficient. Nursing home cases are increasing. And all of this will get worse. 4/10

If our plans don’t change, Thanksgiving will be Super Bowl of super spreader events, accelerating an epidemic already out of control. Good guidance from @CDCgov. Better a Zoom Thanksgiving than an ICU Christmas. https://bit.ly/2Hk4hxV  Read my latest: https://fxn.ws/3nIXVrr  5/10

Very encouraging news on vaccines! Still to be seen: supply, immunity duration, protection of frail, safety when millions vaccinated. For distribution: fast, fair, transparent. Nursing home staff, residents should get first. States need $$$ to prepare. Congress must act. 6/10

Much better control needed for many more months. WOW! Great graphics show how much policy matters here: https://nyti.ms/3pLtR0d  And tale of 2 states: VT is 6x more densely populated than SD, but has 10x fewer deaths. Following the science saves lives. https://n.pr/3lT3Jhz  7/10

Hong Kong and Singapore created a travel bubble. More than 5 unlinked infections/day, they will stop travel. Yesterday ~500,000 unlinked infections in US. With a new approach based on science, organized response and honest communication, together we can make steady progress. 8/10

Masks and mask mandates work!! Important report from @CDCMMWR. Impressive graphics: line graph worth careful study. Mandating masks --> decreasing cases.

Freedom includes freedom from disease. Is that complicated?

Next weekly epi thread in 2 weeks. https://bit.ly/334aXYE  9/10

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Have a happy, socially connected, physically distanced Thanksgiving!

“Wear gratitude like a cloak and it will feed every corner of your life."
― Rumi