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In order for UW& #39;s offense to be successful tomorrow, first down is going to be crucial. I did a cursory look at NW& #39;s defense so far this season and a few things stood out.
They& #39;ve done a good job stopping the run on first down. Wisconsin comes into the game averaging 5.3 YPC on first down, and Northwestern has held 2 of their 4 opponents well below that.
Once NU& #39;s defense has gotten the opponent behind the chains, they& #39;ve really dug in. On passing downs, they& #39;ve held all of their opponents below 5.5 YPA. Wisconsin comes in averaging 8.33 YPA on passing downs. This will be a crucial battle to watch.
UW can counter by trying to pass on first down. Overall, Badgers are averaging 9 YPA on those attempts, greatly aided by a 53 yard TD by DD on first down against Illinois. Removing that from the calculation, they& #39;re averaging a tiny 3.5 YPA on first down passes.
Overall, I think the low numbers on first down aren& #39;t a cause for concern, and UW obviously has the weapons to make the passing game work. If UW can get it going through the air on early downs tomorrow, I imagine they& #39;ll have a very successful offensive showing.
