In order for UW's offense to be successful tomorrow, first down is going to be crucial. I did a cursory look at NW's defense so far this season and a few things stood out.

They've done a good job stopping the run on first down. Wisconsin comes into the game averaging 5.3 YPC on first down, and Northwestern has held 2 of their 4 opponents well below that.

Once NU's defense has gotten the opponent behind the chains, they've really dug in. On passing downs, they've held all of their opponents below 5.5 YPA. Wisconsin comes in averaging 8.33 YPA on passing downs. This will be a crucial battle to watch.

UW can counter by trying to pass on first down. Overall, Badgers are averaging 9 YPA on those attempts, greatly aided by a 53 yard TD by DD on first down against Illinois. Removing that from the calculation, they're averaging a tiny 3.5 YPA on first down passes.

Overall, I think the low numbers on first down aren't a cause for concern, and UW obviously has the weapons to make the passing game work. If UW can get it going through the air on early downs tomorrow, I imagine they'll have a very successful offensive showing.

If, for some reason, they only scrape out 3-4 YPA on first down, they'll be stuck behind the chains and have to contend with NU's pass defense, which has been terrific in passing situations this year. I'd expect a ton of first down PA and swings/screens.

Also worth noting that UW's average yards to gain on 3rd down has been around 3.4, which is one of the best in the country. So they've done a good job of obtaining 3rd and short/manageable situations.