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Saskatchewan's covid model released Nov 19th shows an unattainable best-case scenario. It may have been an option, but it isn't any longer.
Why is it impossible? It's backdated. If you look at the "bend" in the optimistic scenario it occurs ~ October 25th.
Here are the true reported 7-day averaged new cases. We aren't currently headed for the worst scenario, but we're locked out of the best. Even if the new regulations from yesterday give us the same abrupt drop (unlikely) our plateau will be flatter (less drop)
Why is @SaskHealth showing us a model that predicted those interventions to take place the week after Thanksgiving? Why didn't they actually do something back then to make those predictions more likely?
Is Manitoba an indicator of where we're headed? At least in the short-term it seems likely. If we look at their reported test positivity, active case counts and deaths and overlay our numbers (not adjusted for their 15% higher population) we are looking okay, but just wait.
If we shift our #'s back one month we can see that our test positivity and active case numbers now fall along a very similar trajectory. It also gives us a sobering prediction that we are just at the cusp of seeing a big increase in deaths over the next month.
Are we fully committed to this path? For a few weeks we are because hospitalizations and deaths are lagging indicators. From their own words (and observed worldwide) we won't see the peak of ICU admissions until ~4 weeks from yesterday and deaths will reflect our ICU capacity.
One thing people in Sask aren't totally aware of is just how lucky we've been. Our death rate in 60-79's or 80+ is far below the national average. Once the system is at or near capacity (locally at a LTC facility or city/province-wide) the death rate will increase substantially.
