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Saskatchewan& #39;s covid model released Nov 19th shows an unattainable best-case scenario. It may have been an option, but it isn& #39;t any longer.
Why is it impossible? It& #39;s backdated. If you look at the "bend" in the optimistic scenario it occurs ~ October 25th.
Here are the true reported 7-day averaged new cases. We aren& #39;t currently headed for the worst scenario, but we& #39;re locked out of the best. Even if the new regulations from yesterday give us the same abrupt drop (unlikely) our plateau will be flatter (less drop)
Why is @SaskHealth showing us a model that predicted those interventions to take place the week after Thanksgiving? Why didn& #39;t they actually do something back then to make those predictions more likely?
Is Manitoba an indicator of where we& #39;re headed? At least in the short-term it seems likely. If we look at their reported test positivity, active case counts and deaths and overlay our numbers (not adjusted for their 15% higher population) we are looking okay, but just wait.
If we shift our #& #39;s back one month we can see that our test positivity and active case numbers now fall along a very similar trajectory. It also gives us a sobering prediction that we are just at the cusp of seeing a big increase in deaths over the next month.
Are we fully committed to this path? For a few weeks we are because hospitalizations and deaths are lagging indicators. From their own words (and observed worldwide) we won& #39;t see the peak of ICU admissions until ~4 weeks from yesterday and deaths will reflect our ICU capacity.
