After a deep dive into multiple sources of data from the 100 largest cities, my conclusion is that 2020 has been an extremely violent year. The murder rate will rise substantially this year (red = increase in fatal shootings relative to same period last year, green=decline)

Part of the story is the rise in shootings in the aftermath of the protests against police violence. Violence has risen in almost all cities from May-October, and it skyrocketed in cities like Chicago, Milwaukee, New York, New Orleans, Louisville, St. Louis.

But the rise of violence was already visible in the first four months of 2020 (especially in the rust belt). Of the 99 largest cities, more than 75% had an increase in fatal shootings through April.

Even during the beginning of the lockdown, in March and April, more cities experienced a rise in fatal shootings than a decline.

I fear the murder rate in 2020 will end up being at least as high as it was back at the beginning of the 2000s. We're losing ground. It's time to confront violence with a new model driven not by punishment, but by investment.