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I understand people think masks work - its "obvious", right?
But the real world is more complex than that, so being a strange sort of chap who prefers science to a 'Piers Morgan degree in Common Sense', I had a look at the scientific evidence.
But the real world is more complex than that, so being a strange sort of chap who prefers science to a 'Piers Morgan degree in Common Sense', I had a look at the scientific evidence.
Viruses can be transmitted in 3 ways: fomites, droplets and aerosols. The consensus is that aerosol transmission is the primary route, and the other 2 are minor. Good reasons to think this. Lets see:
1. Fomites. These are viruses left on surfaces that you touch. Turns out most viruses don't last long, and you also have to bring them up to your face and get them past the body defences. Tiny chance of infection from this.
2. droplets. These are the "big" bits of spit you cough out, sure a mask will stop these, but TBH everyone coughs into their hand or hankie, so masks aren't actually needed to stop this. They don't travel far, so social distance turns out to be a better defence.
3. aerosols. This is the primary cause of infection. Aerosol is the truly tiny particles that you breathe out. Note there are many studies showing aerosols escape masks, even medical ones out the sides and top - if they didn't, you'd suffocate. Examples:
So all the basics are covered. We see masks do not really protect anyone, but they might offer some protection, and a little is better than nothing, right?
It has to consider the disadvantages of mask wearing (especially forced by the state and via peer abusiveness). The WHO says:
This doesn't include other disadvatanges from masks such as the build up of bacteria that could cause bacterian pneumonia in wearers, masks are all supposed to be medical grade ones that are disposed of when dirty. The public do not wear them, or wear them properly.
In the real world things are slightly different to lab studies, and we do have some studies from real-world environments where people wore masks to prevent viruses (and where they didn't).
The recent Danish study showed that (though concerned with the wearer),
others such as a CDC study in May found no effect from mask wear
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article
others such as a CDC study in May found no effect from mask wear
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article
similarly, a pilot study of pilgrims ot the Hajj found no difference between those wearing a mask and a control group https://www.eurekaselect.com/125489/article
Another study by the UEA (p6)
"the wide spread use of face masks or coverings in the community do not provide any benefit. Indeed, there is even a suggestio n that they may actually increase risk"
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20088260v1.full.pdf
"the wide spread use of face masks or coverings in the community do not provide any benefit. Indeed, there is even a suggestio n that they may actually increase risk"
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20088260v1.full.pdf
Studies of surgeons showed no difference wearing masks or not, and today a surgeon can operate on you maskless, but then must wear one to buy groceries. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0141076815583167
The 1918 Spanish Flu was a good one. We have studies of entire cities that had compulsory masks, and those that did not. The result: no difference in transmission (the mask-wearing city, Stockton, actually fared worse!) https://update.lib.berkeley.edu/2020/05/23/did-masks-work-the-1918-flu-pandemic-and-the-meaning-of-layered-interventions/
And read further, the surgeon-general looked at hospital staff (who wore good masks, properly trained)
So it is very possibly that the use of masks makes things worse - that 1% chance of preventing transmission that is "obvious" turns out to be a 1% chance of increasing transmission. Would this change anyone's mind about wearing them? Does anyone truly care anymore?
The British Medical Journal thinks this is important, facts, impartially determined, should be the only factor. Not our hyper-politicised life today, not media sensationalism, not gov arse-covering, not profit. https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4425
So I'll finish up (there's so much more, I'd be here all day) with a tweet from @deb_cohen who went on record to defend against political types telling her not to report on mask use. Something smells, and its not my mask.
