Read on Twitter
1/
So #COVIDzero is trending.
What's not to like about zero cases of #COVID19?
1. How can we get there?
2. Is this feasible in Canada?
Some unpopular opinions & perhaps a few hard truths below...
So #COVIDzero is trending.
What's not to like about zero cases of #COVID19?
1. How can we get there?
2. Is this feasible in Canada?
Some unpopular opinions & perhaps a few hard truths below...
2/ With a #COVIDzero strategy or not, it is clear that we should improve/continue to:
1. Evaluate & address drivers of #COVID19 in the community
2. Bolster a Test-Trace-Isolate-Support system
3. Support communities & businesses disproportionately impacted by the virus
BUT...
1. Evaluate & address drivers of #COVID19 in the community
2. Bolster a Test-Trace-Isolate-Support system
3. Support communities & businesses disproportionately impacted by the virus
BUT...
3/ What would it actually take to *operationalize* #COVIDzero in Canada? How do we get to (or near) zero cases & maintain it?
***It would take prolonged & full lockdown (3-5 months based on current burden?) where #COVID19 is crushed, then ongoing supports to suppress this***
***It would take prolonged & full lockdown (3-5 months based on current burden?) where #COVID19 is crushed, then ongoing supports to suppress this***
4/
Some notable successes include Taiwan, New Zealand, Australia, Atlantic Canada, and a few others...
And they are reaping the rewards.
Some notable successes include Taiwan, New Zealand, Australia, Atlantic Canada, and a few others...
And they are reaping the rewards.
5/ But several of aspects to achieve #COVIDzero must ALIGN to be successful (e.g. like that Swiss cheese model), including:
1. Federal government support
2. Federal public health support
3. Provincial government support (all)
4. Provincial public health support (all)...
1. Federal government support
2. Federal public health support
3. Provincial government support (all)
4. Provincial public health support (all)...
6/
5. Municipal government support (all)
6. Regional public health support (all)
7. Community buy-in for prolonged pan-Canadian lockdown
8. Enforcement of lockdown measures
9. Massive support for communities impacted by lockdown
10. Support+++ for businesses impacted by lockdown
5. Municipal government support (all)
6. Regional public health support (all)
7. Community buy-in for prolonged pan-Canadian lockdown
8. Enforcement of lockdown measures
9. Massive support for communities impacted by lockdown
10. Support+++ for businesses impacted by lockdown
7/
11. Halting interprovincial travel
12. Halting regional travel (eg 5 km radius from home in Victoria, Australia)
13. Bolster diagnostic testing capacity country wide
14. Bolster contact tracing capacity country wide
15. Stay at home orders (no private social gatherings)
11. Halting interprovincial travel
12. Halting regional travel (eg 5 km radius from home in Victoria, Australia)
13. Bolster diagnostic testing capacity country wide
14. Bolster contact tracing capacity country wide
15. Stay at home orders (no private social gatherings)
8/
16. Ensuring everyone who cannot isolate has a safe place to do so, even if they don't want to isolate...
17. Creating a reliable pan-Canadian surveillance program (e.g. waste water, syndromic surveillance, etc)
18. Ensuring supply chain intact for medical & essential goods
16. Ensuring everyone who cannot isolate has a safe place to do so, even if they don't want to isolate...
17. Creating a reliable pan-Canadian surveillance program (e.g. waste water, syndromic surveillance, etc)
18. Ensuring supply chain intact for medical & essential goods
9/
19. Strict border control/screening for incoming people & goods (see link below & the tremendous volume of travel over Canada/US border for *essential* goods)
20. Ensuring safe workplaces (e.g. factories, etc), systems in place for paid sick leave.
https://ontruck.org/freight-economy/
19. Strict border control/screening for incoming people & goods (see link below & the tremendous volume of travel over Canada/US border for *essential* goods)
20. Ensuring safe workplaces (e.g. factories, etc), systems in place for paid sick leave.
https://ontruck.org/freight-economy/
10/
I am sure that I am missing some major ones above - please add/correct any. This is just a first pass.
I am sure that I am missing some major ones above - please add/correct any. This is just a first pass.
11/
Think of what it takes to achieve #ZEROcovid. Realistically, how successful have we been with many of these like testing, contact tracing, surveillance, supporting marginalized, esp. in hot spots?
...
Now ask yourself is #COVIDzero probable, aspirational, feasible?
Think of what it takes to achieve #ZEROcovid. Realistically, how successful have we been with many of these like testing, contact tracing, surveillance, supporting marginalized, esp. in hot spots?
...
Now ask yourself is #COVIDzero probable, aspirational, feasible?
12/
I think we have to be honest with ourselves & the public about what it would take to get there, what our capacity/appetite is, & the likelihood of this being successful.
And of course, it would be great to have zero (or near 0) #COVID19, but will we?
I think we have to be honest with ourselves & the public about what it would take to get there, what our capacity/appetite is, & the likelihood of this being successful.
And of course, it would be great to have zero (or near 0) #COVID19, but will we?
13/
Also consider timing - getting to or near zero covid will take ~4+ months, around the time vaccine roll-out is likely to start (which will take time to do country-wide) & will prioritize the most vulnerable populations first e.g. those in LTC, who account for >80% of deaths.
Also consider timing - getting to or near zero covid will take ~4+ months, around the time vaccine roll-out is likely to start (which will take time to do country-wide) & will prioritize the most vulnerable populations first e.g. those in LTC, who account for >80% of deaths.
14/
Soooo....
1. CAN #COVIDzero work? Theoretically possible.
2. WILL this work? Canadians will have to decide, not just those on Med/Epi/COVID twitter.
3. Regardless of #1 & #2, SHOULD we drive cases lower, boost Test-Trace-Isolate capacity, support vulnerable? Of course.
Soooo....
1. CAN #COVIDzero work? Theoretically possible.
2. WILL this work? Canadians will have to decide, not just those on Med/Epi/COVID twitter.
3. Regardless of #1 & #2, SHOULD we drive cases lower, boost Test-Trace-Isolate capacity, support vulnerable? Of course.
ADDENDUM:
Let's talk #COVIDzero when a vaccine rolls out.
Or aim for something realistic, like zero #COVID19 deaths.... https://nationalpost.com/opinion/opinion-were-infectious-disease-experts-and-eliminating-covid-wont-happen-any-time-soon
Let's talk #COVIDzero when a vaccine rolls out.
Or aim for something realistic, like zero #COVID19 deaths.... https://nationalpost.com/opinion/opinion-were-infectious-disease-experts-and-eliminating-covid-wont-happen-any-time-soon
