Thread by @MartinJuhl2, A compilation on current data on seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 as well as [...]

A compilation on current data on seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 as well as historic data on other virus, such as common cold HCoV's and influenza

Temperature

Humidity

UVB

Vitamin D

Indoor vs outdoor

Dose exposure

Ventilation

1/x

Leading virus immunity expert Iwasaki on seasonality of virus: highlights the importance of the environmental factors: temperature, humidity as well as vitamin D status, in modulating immune responses to viral infections in the respiratory tract https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-virology-012420-022445
2/x

Seasonality of Respiratory Viral Infections

The seasonal cycle of respiratory viral diseases has been widely recognized for thousands of years, as annual epidemics of the common cold and influenza disease hit the human population like clockw...

https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-virology-012420-022445

Temperature, Humidity, and Latitude Analysis to Estimate Potential Spread and Seasonality of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).
3/x https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2767010?fbclid=IwAR0UPHepN1aFAsBL-zkSFQYAYE1w445bMsCBDYRclYHNrg_GX2cJz-WlPok

Temperature, Humidity, and Latitude Analysis to Estimate Potential Seasonality of COVID-19

This cohort study examines the association between climate and the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2767010?fbclid=IwAR0UPHepN1aFAsBL-zkSFQYAYE1w445bMsCBDYRclYHNrg_GX2cJz-WlPok

In the above cohort study of 50 cities with and without COVID-19 had distribution roughly along the 30° N to 50° N latitude corridor with consistently similar weather patterns, consisting of mean temperatures of 5 to 11 °C combined with low specific and absolute humidity.
4/x

Seasonality of SARS-CoV-2: Will COVID-19 go away on its own in warmer weather? For the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, we have reason to expect that like other betacoronaviruses, it may transmit somewhat more efficiently in winter than summer
5/x https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/?fbclid=IwAR3SH2_Q2ZoDvZraL7GIe_Tk8uNtqoHfei3SrBDr5He9IpROd-hhmZDt1E0

Seasonality of SARS-CoV-2: Will COVID-19 go away on its own in warmer weather?

Marc Lipsitch, DPhil Professor of Epidemiology and Director, Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health (tl;dr) Probably not. Several people, including the …

https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/?fbclid=IwAR3SH2_Q2ZoDvZraL7GIe_Tk8uNtqoHfei3SrBDr5He9IpROd-hhmZDt1E0

The size of the change is expected to be modest, and not enough to stop transmission on its own. Based on the analogy of pandemic flu, we expect that SARS-CoV-2, as a virus new to humans, will face less immunity and thus transmit more readily even outside of the winter season
6/x

@michaelmina_lab
Epidemiologist, Immunologist, Physician, Harvard Public Health/Medical School

"Mistaking ongoing transmission in the summer for a "less seasonal virus" is not smart. All evidence points in the other direction"
7/x https://twitter.com/MartinJuhl2/status/1314877632681517058?s=20

https://twitter.com/MartinJuhl2/status/1314877632681517058?s=20

Study that provides an overview of the global seasonality of sCoVs. Findings offer clues to the possible postpandemic circulating season of SARS-CoV-2 and add to the knowledge pool necessary for postpandemic preparedness for SARS-CoV-2.
https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/222/7/1090/5874220
8/x

Global Seasonality of Human Seasonal Coronaviruses: A Clue for Postpandemic Circulating Season of...

AbstractBackground. The ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) could

https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/222/7/1090/5874220

Early detection of seasonality and second-wave prediction in the COVID-19 pandemic
9/x
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.02.20187203v3

Temperature, humidity and latitude analysis to predict potential spread and seasonality
Bottom Line
The transmission of COVID-19 is associated with the 30 to 50 degree N’ longitude corridor and weather patterns and low specific and absolute humidity https://www.cebm.net/study/covid-19-temperature-humidity-and-latitude-analysis-to-predict-potential-spread-and-seasonality/?fbclid=IwAR1VNqYu_g_Ehxyo5tFgDqDoYtOuSBn7wUapc8WOzXXDl-45hWnOxY3KN_w
10/x

The seasonal differences between the Southern and Northern hemispheres might have played a role in the spread of SARS-CoV-2
11/x https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.567184/full

Seasonality of Respiratory Viral Infections: Will COVID-19 Follow Suit?

Respiratory viruses, including coronaviruses, are known to have a high incidence of infection during winter, especially in temperate regions. Dry and cold conditions during winter are the major...

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.567184/full

What happens to COVID19 when winter returns to the Northern Hemisphere is still uncertain, but here are some things we know
-people will spend more time indoors
-indoor air will be drier and less ventilated
-endemic CoVs have pronounced seasonality
12/x https://twitter.com/MartinJuhl2/status/1314877643142164481?s=20

https://twitter.com/MartinJuhl2/status/1314877643142164481?s=20

On the epidemiology of influenza
In 1992, Hope-Simpson predicted that, "understanding the mechanism (of the seasonal stimulus) may be of critical value in designing prophylaxis against the disease."
https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1743-422X-5-29
13/x

Vitamin D Status and Seasonal Variation among Danish Children and Adults: A Descriptive Study
14/x
https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/10/11/1801?type=check_update&version=1

Vitamin D supplementation to prevent acute respiratory infections: Data from 39 studies. For the primary comparison of vitamin D supplementation vs. placebo, the intervention reduced risk of ARI overall (Odds Ratio [OR] 0.89) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.14.20152728v1
15/x

This preprint is a follow up on the 2017 BMJ metaanalysis of 25 RCT's
Vitamin D supplementation reduced the risk of acute respiratory tract infection among all participants (adjusted odds ratio 0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 0.96)
16/x
https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6583

Regarding Vitamin D & Covid-19:
Positive RCT data: Of 50 patients treated with calcifediol (25-hydroxy-vitamin D), one required admission to the ICU (2%), while of 26 untreated patients, 13 required admission (50%) p < 0.001 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076020302764?via%3Dihub
17/x

Cohort study to evaluate effect of vitamin D, magnesium, and vitamin B12 in combination on severe outcome progression in older patients with coronavirus (COVID-19) (small study)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0899900720303002
18/x

Vitamin D Treatment Is Associated with Reduced Risk of Mortality in Patients with COVID-19
Treatment with vit D, regardless of baseline vit D levels, appears to be associated with a reduced risk of mortality in acute in-patients admitted with Covid-19
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3690902
19/x

Vitamin D and survival in COVID-19 patients: A quasi-experimental study
Bolus vitamin D3 supplementation during or just before COVID-19 was associated with better survival rate in frail elderly.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096007602030296X#fig0010
20/x

Walkthrough by @tomaspueyo on data, including the link to bradykinin, discovered by a supercomputer in Oak Ridge in a large collaboration
21/x

https://elifesciences.org/articles/59177 https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1302892639193194497?s=20

Collaboration between NIH, King's College London, University of Purdue/Oxford/Auckland/Concepcion/Virginia/Lübeck:
research indicates #VitaminD's action on #Tcells intersects with #complement pathways to counter lung inflammation in severe #COVID19.
https://twitter.com/RHCMcG/status/1285293367702614016?s=20
22/x

https://twitter.com/RHCMcG/status/1285293367702614016?s=20

Six Potential Treatments for COVID19 Identified using AI
23/x https://twitter.com/MartinJuhl2/status/1315693302033907717?s=20

https://twitter.com/MartinJuhl2/status/1315693302033907717?s=20

Identification of potential treatments for COVID-19 through artificial intelligence-enabled
phenomic analysis of human cells infected with SARS-CoV-2

Hits included Vitamin D analogues
24/x
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.21.054387v1.full.pdf

Cohort study of 489 who had a vitD level measured in the year before COVID-19 testing, the relative risk of testing pos for COVID-19 was 1.77x greater for patients deficient vitD status compared with sufficient vitD status, statistically significant https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2770157?fbclid=IwAR12DDAcI6aZqpwUKSBXBsaeuFwV3C2R2xIRGi8sK5Yhhwi_tLbYL9Jmu2w
25/x

Association of Vitamin D Status and Other Clinical Characteristics With COVID-19 Test Results

This cohort study examines whether patients’ most recent vitamin D levels and treatment for insufficient vitamin D levels are associated with test results for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2770157?fbclid=IwAR12DDAcI6aZqpwUKSBXBsaeuFwV3C2R2xIRGi8sK5Yhhwi_tLbYL9Jmu2w

A highly significant correlation between prevalence of vitamin D deficiency and Covid-19 incidence

Between

-to-

ratio for severe vitamin D deficiency and

-to-

ratio for Covid-19 incidence in localities

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.04.20188268v1
26/x

A highly significant correlation between prevalence of vitamin D deficiency and Covid-19 incidenceBetween -to- ratio for severe vitamin D deficiency and -to- ratio for Covid-19 incidence in localities https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.04.20188268v126/x

Collection of studies of post-infection blood samples

Both studies which supports the vitamin D link
&
studies which does not support link to vitamin D
27/x
https://vitamin-d-covid.shotwell.ca

Critical assessment of the evidence of vitamin D
28/x https://coronavirus.medium.com/vitamin-d-and-covid-19-90f1d1493cc0

What We Know About Vitamin D and Covid-19

Why we still don’t know whether a vitamin D supplement helps for coronavirus

https://coronavirus.medium.com/vitamin-d-and-covid-19-90f1d1493cc0

Did not show a correlation:
Vitamin D concentrations and COVID-19 infection in UK Biobank
29/x
https://sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1871402120301156

A thread on how our model takes into account the seasonality of COVID-19. We anticipate a large increase in daily COVID-19 deaths in the US in late November and December......but the increase we’re projecting is driven most importantly by seasonality https://twitter.com/IHME_UW/status/1309627883636187136?s=20

https://twitter.com/IHME_UW/status/1309627883636187136?s=20

Closed environments facilitate secondary transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
The odds that a primary case transmitted COVID-19 in a closed environment was 18.7 times greater compared to an open-air environment
30/x
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.28.20029272v2

Evidence of Protective Role of UVB Radiation in Reducing COVID-19 Deaths

Permanent increase in UV index is associated with a 1.2% decline in daily growth rates of C19 deaths p<0.01 as well as a 1.0% decline in the daily growth rates of CFR p<0.05
https://nature.com/articles/s41598-020-74825-z
31/x

Find that UV light, in particular, is associated with decreased disease growth rate relative to other factors. Based on these associations with weather, predict that C19 will decrease temporarily during summer rebound by autumn, and peak next winter
32/x https://www.pnas.org/content/117/44/27456

Seasonality and uncertainty in global COVID-19 growth rates

The virus causing COVID-19 has spread rapidly worldwide. It remains unknown whether summer weather will reduce its spread and justify relaxing political interventions and restarting economic activi...

https://www.pnas.org/content/117/44/27456

Seasonal effect of humidity, lower viral dose due to UVB exposure, and vitamin D mentioned as factors

33/x

SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load Predicts Mortality in Patients with and without Cancer Who Are Hospitalized with COVID-19

Fit well with historic work by Peter Aaby: the discovery that the infant mortality rate from measles was linked to initial dose
34/x https://twitter.com/tmprowell/status/1310222482763382784?s=20

https://twitter.com/tmprowell/status/1310222482763382784?s=20

higher indoor transmission could also lead to worse outcome

SARS-CoV-2 viral load predicts COVID-19 mortality
35/x https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30354-4/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR2ZJGotR5ZJbx4Tl8bYOQYjiNxaxSXItTOlMp89kKU2EM57KvsYKO6Tobw

SARS-CoV-2 viral load predicts COVID-19 mortality

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) detection platforms currently report qualitative results. However, technology based on RT-PCR allows for calculation of viral load, which...

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30354-4/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR2ZJGotR5ZJbx4Tl8bYOQYjiNxaxSXItTOlMp89kKU2EM57KvsYKO6Tobw

New preprint study showing the virus remains infectious longer at low temperatures and extreme relative humidities

Key finding: the virus remains infectious longer at low temperatures and extreme relative humidities

https://twitter.com/dylanhmorris/status/1317452511624790017?s=20
36/x

https://twitter.com/dylanhmorris/status/1317452511624790017?s=20

Two videos showing how relative humidity plays a large role in the ability to clear virus in the airway.
RH 50% good
RH 10% bad
(Humid summer’s vs dry winter’s)
37/x
https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1320430656481120256?s=20

https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1320430656481120256?s=20

A room, a bar and a classroom: how the coronavirus is spread through the air

Highlights the importance of ventilation

38/x https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html?ssm=TW_CC

A room, a bar and a classroom: how the coronavirus is spread through the air

The risk of contagion is highest in indoor spaces but can be reduced by applying all available measures to combat infection via aerosols. Here is an overview of the likelihood of infection in three...

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html?ssm=TW_CC

Excellent illustration using a contour plot on how seasonality and the Rt value is linked. In order to keep the Rt value ~1, while moving towards fall/winter, human societal interconnectivity has to be reduced
39/x https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1327437375320932352

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1327437375320932352

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