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A compilation on current data on seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 as well as historic data on other virus, such as common cold HCoV's and influenza
Temperature
Humidity
UVB
Vitamin D
Indoor vs outdoor
Dose exposure
Ventilation
1/x
Temperature Humidity UVB Vitamin D Indoor vs outdoor Dose exposure Ventilation1/x
Leading virus immunity expert Iwasaki on seasonality of virus: highlights the importance of the environmental factors: temperature, humidity as well as vitamin D status, in modulating immune responses to viral infections in the respiratory tract https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-virology-012420-022445
2/x
2/x
Temperature, Humidity, and Latitude Analysis to Estimate Potential Spread and Seasonality of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).
3/x https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2767010?fbclid=IwAR0UPHepN1aFAsBL-zkSFQYAYE1w445bMsCBDYRclYHNrg_GX2cJz-WlPok
3/x https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2767010?fbclid=IwAR0UPHepN1aFAsBL-zkSFQYAYE1w445bMsCBDYRclYHNrg_GX2cJz-WlPok
In the above cohort study of 50 cities with and without COVID-19 had distribution roughly along the 30° N to 50° N latitude corridor with consistently similar weather patterns, consisting of mean temperatures of 5 to 11 °C combined with low specific and absolute humidity.
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4/x
Seasonality of SARS-CoV-2: Will COVID-19 go away on its own in warmer weather? For the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, we have reason to expect that like other betacoronaviruses, it may transmit somewhat more efficiently in winter than summer
5/x https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/?fbclid=IwAR3SH2_Q2ZoDvZraL7GIe_Tk8uNtqoHfei3SrBDr5He9IpROd-hhmZDt1E0
5/x https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/?fbclid=IwAR3SH2_Q2ZoDvZraL7GIe_Tk8uNtqoHfei3SrBDr5He9IpROd-hhmZDt1E0
The size of the change is expected to be modest, and not enough to stop transmission on its own. Based on the analogy of pandemic flu, we expect that SARS-CoV-2, as a virus new to humans, will face less immunity and thus transmit more readily even outside of the winter season
6/x
6/x
@michaelmina_lab
Epidemiologist, Immunologist, Physician, Harvard Public Health/Medical School
"Mistaking ongoing transmission in the summer for a "less seasonal virus" is not smart. All evidence points in the other direction"
7/x https://twitter.com/MartinJuhl2/status/1314877632681517058?s=20
Epidemiologist, Immunologist, Physician, Harvard Public Health/Medical School
"Mistaking ongoing transmission in the summer for a "less seasonal virus" is not smart. All evidence points in the other direction"
7/x https://twitter.com/MartinJuhl2/status/1314877632681517058?s=20
Study that provides an overview of the global seasonality of sCoVs. Findings offer clues to the possible postpandemic circulating season of SARS-CoV-2 and add to the knowledge pool necessary for postpandemic preparedness for SARS-CoV-2.
https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/222/7/1090/5874220
8/x
https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/222/7/1090/5874220
8/x
Early detection of seasonality and second-wave prediction in the COVID-19 pandemic
9/x
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.02.20187203v3
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https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.02.20187203v3
Temperature, humidity and latitude analysis to predict potential spread and seasonality
Bottom Line
The transmission of COVID-19 is associated with the 30 to 50 degree N’ longitude corridor and weather patterns and low specific and absolute humidity https://www.cebm.net/study/covid-19-temperature-humidity-and-latitude-analysis-to-predict-potential-spread-and-seasonality/?fbclid=IwAR1VNqYu_g_Ehxyo5tFgDqDoYtOuSBn7wUapc8WOzXXDl-45hWnOxY3KN_w
10/x
Bottom Line
The transmission of COVID-19 is associated with the 30 to 50 degree N’ longitude corridor and weather patterns and low specific and absolute humidity https://www.cebm.net/study/covid-19-temperature-humidity-and-latitude-analysis-to-predict-potential-spread-and-seasonality/?fbclid=IwAR1VNqYu_g_Ehxyo5tFgDqDoYtOuSBn7wUapc8WOzXXDl-45hWnOxY3KN_w
10/x
The seasonal differences between the Southern and Northern hemispheres might have played a role in the spread of SARS-CoV-2
11/x https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.567184/full
11/x https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.567184/full
What happens to COVID19 when winter returns to the Northern Hemisphere is still uncertain, but here are some things we know
-people will spend more time indoors
-indoor air will be drier and less ventilated
-endemic CoVs have pronounced seasonality
12/x https://twitter.com/MartinJuhl2/status/1314877643142164481?s=20
-people will spend more time indoors
-indoor air will be drier and less ventilated
-endemic CoVs have pronounced seasonality
12/x https://twitter.com/MartinJuhl2/status/1314877643142164481?s=20
On the epidemiology of influenza
In 1992, Hope-Simpson predicted that, "understanding the mechanism (of the seasonal stimulus) may be of critical value in designing prophylaxis against the disease."
https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1743-422X-5-29
13/x
In 1992, Hope-Simpson predicted that, "understanding the mechanism (of the seasonal stimulus) may be of critical value in designing prophylaxis against the disease."
https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1743-422X-5-29
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Vitamin D Status and Seasonal Variation among Danish Children and Adults: A Descriptive Study
14/x
https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/10/11/1801?type=check_update&version=1
14/x
https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/10/11/1801?type=check_update&version=1
Vitamin D supplementation to prevent acute respiratory infections: Data from 39 studies. For the primary comparison of vitamin D supplementation vs. placebo, the intervention reduced risk of ARI overall (Odds Ratio [OR] 0.89) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.14.20152728v1
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![Vitamin D supplementation to prevent acute respiratory infections: Data from 39 studies. For the primary comparison of vitamin D supplementation vs. placebo, the intervention reduced risk of ARI overall (Odds Ratio [OR] 0.89) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.14.20152728v115/x](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmZfUFAXYAY91HX.png "Vitamin D supplementation to prevent acute respiratory infections: Data from 39 studies. For the primary comparison of vitamin D supplementation vs. placebo, the intervention reduced risk of ARI overall (Odds Ratio [OR] 0.89) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.14.20152728v115/x")
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This preprint is a follow up on the 2017 BMJ metaanalysis of 25 RCT's
Vitamin D supplementation reduced the risk of acute respiratory tract infection among all participants (adjusted odds ratio 0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 0.96)
16/x
https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6583
Vitamin D supplementation reduced the risk of acute respiratory tract infection among all participants (adjusted odds ratio 0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 0.96)
16/x
https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6583
Regarding Vitamin D & Covid-19:
Positive RCT data: Of 50 patients treated with calcifediol (25-hydroxy-vitamin D), one required admission to the ICU (2%), while of 26 untreated patients, 13 required admission (50%) p < 0.001 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076020302764?via%3Dihub
17/x
Positive RCT data: Of 50 patients treated with calcifediol (25-hydroxy-vitamin D), one required admission to the ICU (2%), while of 26 untreated patients, 13 required admission (50%) p < 0.001 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076020302764?via%3Dihub
17/x
Cohort study to evaluate effect of vitamin D, magnesium, and vitamin B12 in combination on severe outcome progression in older patients with coronavirus (COVID-19) (small study)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0899900720303002
18/x
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0899900720303002
18/x
Vitamin D Treatment Is Associated with Reduced Risk of Mortality in Patients with COVID-19
Treatment with vit D, regardless of baseline vit D levels, appears to be associated with a reduced risk of mortality in acute in-patients admitted with Covid-19
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3690902
19/x
Treatment with vit D, regardless of baseline vit D levels, appears to be associated with a reduced risk of mortality in acute in-patients admitted with Covid-19
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3690902
19/x
Vitamin D and survival in COVID-19 patients: A quasi-experimental study
Bolus vitamin D3 supplementation during or just before COVID-19 was associated with better survival rate in frail elderly.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096007602030296X#fig0010
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Bolus vitamin D3 supplementation during or just before COVID-19 was associated with better survival rate in frail elderly.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096007602030296X#fig0010
20/x
Walkthrough by @tomaspueyo on data, including the link to bradykinin, discovered by a supercomputer in Oak Ridge in a large collaboration
21/x
https://elifesciences.org/articles/59177 https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1302892639193194497?s=20
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https://elifesciences.org/articles/59177 https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1302892639193194497?s=20
Collaboration between NIH, King's College London, University of Purdue/Oxford/Auckland/Concepcion/Virginia/Lübeck:
research indicates #VitaminD's action on #Tcells intersects with #complement pathways to counter lung inflammation in severe #COVID19.
https://twitter.com/RHCMcG/status/1285293367702614016?s=20
22/x
research indicates #VitaminD's action on #Tcells intersects with #complement pathways to counter lung inflammation in severe #COVID19.
https://twitter.com/RHCMcG/status/1285293367702614016?s=20
22/x
Six Potential Treatments for COVID19 Identified using AI
23/x https://twitter.com/MartinJuhl2/status/1315693302033907717?s=20
23/x https://twitter.com/MartinJuhl2/status/1315693302033907717?s=20
Identification of potential treatments for COVID-19 through artificial intelligence-enabled
phenomic analysis of human cells infected with SARS-CoV-2
Hits included Vitamin D analogues
24/x
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.21.054387v1.full.pdf
phenomic analysis of human cells infected with SARS-CoV-2
Hits included Vitamin D analogues
24/x
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.21.054387v1.full.pdf
Cohort study of 489 who had a vitD level measured in the year before COVID-19 testing, the relative risk of testing pos for COVID-19 was 1.77x greater for patients deficient vitD status compared with sufficient vitD status, statistically significant https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2770157?fbclid=IwAR12DDAcI6aZqpwUKSBXBsaeuFwV3C2R2xIRGi8sK5Yhhwi_tLbYL9Jmu2w
25/x
25/x
A highly significant correlation between prevalence of vitamin D deficiency and Covid-19 incidence
Between
-to-
ratio for severe vitamin D deficiency and -to- ratio for Covid-19 incidence in localities
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.04.20188268v1
26/x
Between
-to- ratio for severe vitamin D deficiency and -to- ratio for Covid-19 incidence in localitieshttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.04.20188268v1
26/x
Collection of studies of post-infection blood samples
Both studies which supports the vitamin D link
&
studies which does not support link to vitamin D
27/x
https://vitamin-d-covid.shotwell.ca
Both studies which supports the vitamin D link
&
studies which does not support link to vitamin D
27/x
https://vitamin-d-covid.shotwell.ca
Critical assessment of the evidence of vitamin D
28/x https://coronavirus.medium.com/vitamin-d-and-covid-19-90f1d1493cc0
28/x https://coronavirus.medium.com/vitamin-d-and-covid-19-90f1d1493cc0
Did not show a correlation:
Vitamin D concentrations and COVID-19 infection in UK Biobank
29/x
https://sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1871402120301156
Vitamin D concentrations and COVID-19 infection in UK Biobank
29/x
https://sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1871402120301156
A thread on how our model takes into account the seasonality of COVID-19. We anticipate a large increase in daily COVID-19 deaths in the US in late November and December......but the increase we’re projecting is driven most importantly by seasonality https://twitter.com/IHME_UW/status/1309627883636187136?s=20
Closed environments facilitate secondary transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
The odds that a primary case transmitted COVID-19 in a closed environment was 18.7 times greater compared to an open-air environment
30/x
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.28.20029272v2
The odds that a primary case transmitted COVID-19 in a closed environment was 18.7 times greater compared to an open-air environment
30/x
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.28.20029272v2
Evidence of Protective Role of UVB Radiation in Reducing COVID-19 Deaths
Permanent increase in UV index is associated with a 1.2% decline in daily growth rates of C19 deaths p<0.01 as well as a 1.0% decline in the daily growth rates of CFR p<0.05
https://nature.com/articles/s41598-020-74825-z
31/x
Permanent increase in UV index is associated with a 1.2% decline in daily growth rates of C19 deaths p<0.01 as well as a 1.0% decline in the daily growth rates of CFR p<0.05
https://nature.com/articles/s41598-020-74825-z
31/x
Find that UV light, in particular, is associated with decreased disease growth rate relative to other factors. Based on these associations with weather, predict that C19 will decrease temporarily during summer rebound by autumn, and peak next winter
32/x https://www.pnas.org/content/117/44/27456
32/x https://www.pnas.org/content/117/44/27456
Seasonal effect of humidity, lower viral dose due to UVB exposure, and vitamin D mentioned as factors
33/x
33/x
SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load Predicts Mortality in Patients with and without Cancer Who Are Hospitalized with COVID-19
Fit well with historic work by Peter Aaby: the discovery that the infant mortality rate from measles was linked to initial dose
34/x https://twitter.com/tmprowell/status/1310222482763382784?s=20
Fit well with historic work by Peter Aaby: the discovery that the infant mortality rate from measles was linked to initial dose
34/x https://twitter.com/tmprowell/status/1310222482763382784?s=20
higher indoor transmission could also lead to worse outcomeSARS-CoV-2 viral load predicts COVID-19 mortality
35/x https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30354-4/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR2ZJGotR5ZJbx4Tl8bYOQYjiNxaxSXItTOlMp89kKU2EM57KvsYKO6Tobw
SARS-CoV-2 viral load predicts COVID-19 mortality35/x https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30354-4/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR2ZJGotR5ZJbx4Tl8bYOQYjiNxaxSXItTOlMp89kKU2EM57KvsYKO6Tobw
New preprint study showing the virus remains infectious longer at low temperatures and extreme relative humidities
Key finding: the virus remains infectious longer at low temperatures and extreme relative humidities
https://twitter.com/dylanhmorris/status/1317452511624790017?s=20
36/x
Key finding: the virus remains infectious longer at low temperatures and extreme relative humidities
https://twitter.com/dylanhmorris/status/1317452511624790017?s=20
36/x
Two videos showing how relative humidity plays a large role in the ability to clear virus in the airway.
RH 50% good
RH 10% bad
(Humid summer’s vs dry winter’s)
37/x
https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1320430656481120256?s=20
RH 50% good
RH 10% bad
(Humid summer’s vs dry winter’s)
37/x
https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1320430656481120256?s=20
A room, a bar and a classroom: how the coronavirus is spread through the air
Highlights the importance of ventilation
38/x https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html?ssm=TW_CC
Highlights the importance of ventilation
38/x https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html?ssm=TW_CC
Excellent illustration using a contour plot on how seasonality and the Rt value is linked. In order to keep the Rt value ~1, while moving towards fall/winter, human societal interconnectivity has to be reduced
39/x https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1327437375320932352
39/x https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1327437375320932352
