AOC Deep Dive part 2
All Members of Congress & congressional candidates file campaign finances w/the FEC. It& #39;s publicly available here: https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00639591/
AOC& #39;s">https://www.fec.gov/data/comm... 2020 campaign finances were BONKERS for many reasons.
Now let me tell you about them in excruciating detail
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤓" title="Nerd-Gesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Nerd-Gesicht">
All Members of Congress & congressional candidates file campaign finances w/the FEC. It& #39;s publicly available here: https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00639591/
AOC& #39;s">https://www.fec.gov/data/comm... 2020 campaign finances were BONKERS for many reasons.
Now let me tell you about them in excruciating detail
AOC was the 2020 Dem incumbent in NY-14, which is HEAVILY Democratic. D+29.
She didn& #39;t face any real threat to her re-election.
Primaries:
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen"> AOC:74%
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="❌" title="Kreuzzeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Kreuzzeichen"> Caruso-Cabrera: 18%
General:
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen"> AOC 68.7%
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="❌" title="Kreuzzeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Kreuzzeichen"> Cummings 30.5%
This was the 2ND MOST EXPENSIVE House race. I& #39;ll get to that.
She didn& #39;t face any real threat to her re-election.
Primaries:
General:
This was the 2ND MOST EXPENSIVE House race. I& #39;ll get to that.
Here is an overview of AOC& #39;s re-election campaign-
There& #39;s still a month left to report, but according to her campaign& #39;s FEC filings through October 14, 2020:
Contributions (money in):
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach rechts">
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💲" title="Fettes Dollarzeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes Dollarzeichen">$17,778,071
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💲" title="Fettes Dollarzeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes Dollarzeichen">
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👈" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach links" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach links">
Expenditures (money out):
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach rechts">
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💲" title="Fettes Dollarzeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes Dollarzeichen">$14,082,509
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💲" title="Fettes Dollarzeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes Dollarzeichen">
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👈" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach links" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach links">
There& #39;s still a month left to report, but according to her campaign& #39;s FEC filings through October 14, 2020:
Contributions (money in):
Expenditures (money out):
You might be thinking "is that a lot of money for one of these races?"
GOOD!
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🥳" title="Partying face" aria-label="Emoji: Partying face"> You& #39;re thinking critically & asking the right questions!
Without anything to compare it to, it doesn& #39;t tell us much.
We& #39;ll look at other 2020 race, but first let& #39;s compare it to her 2018 campaign.
GOOD!
Without anything to compare it to, it doesn& #39;t tell us much.
We& #39;ll look at other 2020 race, but first let& #39;s compare it to her 2018 campaign.
AOC launched her 2018 campaign for NY-15 on 5/7/17 from Knoxville, TN.
Knoxville was the Justice Dem office.
She amended it a week later. Was it a mistake like Ilhan listing her accountant as the candidate?
She brags about winning in NY-15 & accuses Crowley of doing the same.
Knoxville was the Justice Dem office.
She amended it a week later. Was it a mistake like Ilhan listing her accountant as the candidate?
She brags about winning in NY-15 & accuses Crowley of doing the same.
2018 Contributions: $2,147,866
2018 Expenditures: $1,782,301
Spending:
Mostly payroll, FB, Consulting, Kat Brezler, Justice Dems(she& #39;s on their board)
Donations:
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">Only $41k (4.1%) were from NY-14
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">Only $316k even came from NY state
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">62% were unitemized (donor unknown to us)
2018 Expenditures: $1,782,301
Spending:
Mostly payroll, FB, Consulting, Kat Brezler, Justice Dems(she& #39;s on their board)
Donations:
For comparison, in the NY-14 2018 race:
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚨" title="Polizeiautos mit drehendem Licht" aria-label="Emoji: Polizeiautos mit drehendem Licht">Joe Crowley, the incumbent AOC beat and constantly accused of raising too much money, raised $21M...
...over the course of his 21 year career.
He actually raised $3.2M in 2018 (vs. AOC& #39;s $2.1M)
...over the course of his 21 year career.
He actually raised $3.2M in 2018 (vs. AOC& #39;s $2.1M)
Ok, so now we know:
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔹" title="Kleine blaue Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine blaue Raute"> In 2018, NY-14 raised ~$5M
(here& #39;s where I finally get back to 2020!)
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔹" title="Kleine blaue Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine blaue Raute"> In 2020, NY-14 raised ~$33M
Here are the winners of the
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏆" title="Trophäe" aria-label="Emoji: Trophäe">Top 5 MOST EXPENSIVE 2020 House Races
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏆" title="Trophäe" aria-label="Emoji: Trophäe">
1) Steve Scalise
2) AOC
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👈" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach links" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach links">
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🥈" title="Silbermedaille" aria-label="Emoji: Silbermedaille">
3) Devin Nunes
4) Nancy Pelosi
5) Kevin McCarthy
S
(here& #39;s where I finally get back to 2020!)
Here are the winners of the
1) Steve Scalise
2) AOC
3) Devin Nunes
4) Nancy Pelosi
5) Kevin McCarthy
S
You might think AOC would have fewer unitemized donations this time, bigger donations?
No 78% of her 2020 donations were unitemized!
AOC was #1 out of ALL 2020 candidates & Bernie was #2 but their #& #39;s are almost identical.
They& #39;re #1 & #2 for fewest named donors. TRANSPARENCY!
No 78% of her 2020 donations were unitemized!
AOC was #1 out of ALL 2020 candidates & Bernie was #2 but their #& #39;s are almost identical.
They& #39;re #1 & #2 for fewest named donors. TRANSPARENCY!
2020 spending by AOC& #39;s neighboring districts
NY-11 : $11,500,000 (Rose)
NY-12 : $3,000,000 (Maloney)
NY-13 : $900,000 (Espaillat)
NY-15 : $3,500,000 (Torres)
NY-16 : $6,000,000 (Bowman)
NY-17 : $3,000,000 (Jones)
(Ballpark $, hard to find exact totals) https://www.opensecrets.org/elections-overview/most-expensive-races">https://www.opensecrets.org/elections...
NY-11 : $11,500,000 (Rose)
NY-12 : $3,000,000 (Maloney)
NY-13 : $900,000 (Espaillat)
NY-15 : $3,500,000 (Torres)
NY-16 : $6,000,000 (Bowman)
NY-17 : $3,000,000 (Jones)
(Ballpark $, hard to find exact totals) https://www.opensecrets.org/elections-overview/most-expensive-races">https://www.opensecrets.org/elections...
Let& #39;s look at the geography of her donations:
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏆" title="Trophäe" aria-label="Emoji: Trophäe">Top 5 Reps w/Most OUT OF STATE Donors (avg is 34.5%)
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏆" title="Trophäe" aria-label="Emoji: Trophäe">
1) Scalise 95%
2) Jordan 87%
3) AOC 84%
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🥉" title="Bronzemedaille" aria-label="Emoji: Bronzemedaille">
4) McCarthy 76%
5) Stefanik 75%
(Nice company she& #39;s got there)
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⚠️" title="Warnsignal" aria-label="Emoji: Warnsignal">And
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👉" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach rechts"> <1%
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👈" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach links" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach links"> of AOC & Cummings are from NY-14. The average is 26%
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⚠️" title="Warnsignal" aria-label="Emoji: Warnsignal">
1) Scalise 95%
2) Jordan 87%
3) AOC 84%
4) McCarthy 76%
5) Stefanik 75%
(Nice company she& #39;s got there)
Ok, so AOC somehow spent $14M as an incumbent in a deep blue district. What did she spend it on?
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">FACEBOOK ADS
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔸" title="Kleine orangene Raute" aria-label="Emoji: Kleine orangene Raute">
$4.8M (before 10/14) on FB ads. Nationwide FB ads!
She spent >$100k on FB ads in *9* different states:
WA
OR
CA
TX
FL
IL
PA
MA
https://www.facebook.com/ads/library/?active_status=all&ad_type=all&country=US&view_all_page_id=1316372698453411">https://www.facebook.com/ads/libra...
$4.8M (before 10/14) on FB ads. Nationwide FB ads!
She spent >$100k on FB ads in *9* different states:
WA
OR
CA
TX
FL
IL
PA
MA
https://www.facebook.com/ads/library/?active_status=all&ad_type=all&country=US&view_all_page_id=1316372698453411">https://www.facebook.com/ads/libra...
That& #39;s a weird set of states to focus on as a representative for Queens/Bronx.
Some weeks she bought more in CA than NY.
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⚠️" title="Warnsignal" aria-label="Emoji: Warnsignal">She bought more FB ads than any other House Candidate.
She was the
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🛑" title="Stop sign" aria-label="Emoji: Stop sign">11th
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🛑" title="Stop sign" aria-label="Emoji: Stop sign"> highest buyer of FB ads out of ALL (House+Senate+Prez) Candidates & ALL PACs
Some weeks she bought more in CA than NY.
She was the
She bought google ads too.
You can view her $497,000 of Google Ads here:
https://transparencyreport.google.com/political-ads/advertiser/AR216489716340490240">https://transparencyreport.google.com/political...
You can view her $497,000 of Google Ads here:
https://transparencyreport.google.com/political-ads/advertiser/AR216489716340490240">https://transparencyreport.google.com/political...
It& #39;s difficult to see all this on the FEC website.
If you look at her top recipients, it looks very different. Like she only spent $330k on Facebook ads
That& #39;s bc she paid via Brex Credit card.
Here& #39;s my long thread about her BREX credit card usage.
https://twitter.com/lizburgh/status/1282012040207491073?s=19">https://twitter.com/lizburgh/...
If you look at her top recipients, it looks very different. Like she only spent $330k on Facebook ads
That& #39;s bc she paid via Brex Credit card.
Here& #39;s my long thread about her BREX credit card usage.
https://twitter.com/lizburgh/status/1282012040207491073?s=19">https://twitter.com/lizburgh/...
So what was all this for? She at least gained voters right?
Wrong. She lost votes.
And gained the largest Republican voter turnout (30.5%) in NY-14 history.
# of votes for AOC:
2018: 110,318
2020: 105,455 (-4863)
% of vote for AOC:
2018: 78.2%
2020: 68.7% (-9.5%)
Wrong. She lost votes.
And gained the largest Republican voter turnout (30.5%) in NY-14 history.
# of votes for AOC:
2018: 110,318
2020: 105,455 (-4863)
% of vote for AOC:
2018: 78.2%
2020: 68.7% (-9.5%)