Read on Twitter
Covid-19 vaccine candidate is 90% effective, says manufacturer - mass roll out will take a while but if 90% holds this certainly makes a huge difference https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/09/covid-19-vaccine-candidate-effective-pfizer-biontech
Washington Post has more detail - 90% is actually against infection not justseverity "In Pfizer’s 44,000-person trial, there have.. been 94 cases of covid19, t... Fewer than nine of those cases were among people who received 2 shots of the vaccine, a strong signal of efficacy"
Pfizer plan to submit an application for emergency authorization from FDA after 3rd week of Nov when they will have 2 months of safety .. data on 1/2 of participants ..along with data on manufacturing. Trial will continue until it reaches its endpoint of 164 cases of covid-19
"vaccine requires 2 doses, given 3 weeks apart. Pfizer and BioNTech are working around-the-clock to scale up production, in hopes of having 50 million doses — enough for 25 million people to receive both shots — by the end of the year, and 1.3 billion doses in 2021."
If all the above holds true I think this would be effective enough to end the pandemic providing enough people get vaccinated to provide actual herd immunity. /4
AFAIK the other vaccine candidates also due to announce soon use broadly similar technology so may show similar results. If so that means that available doses next year of one of these vaccines should run into billions /5
NYT - "1st analysis was based on 94 volunteers who developed Covid-19. Dr. Jansen said the outside board did not say how many of those cases came from participants who had been vaccinated. But with a rate over 90 percent effectiveness, most had to have been in placebo group /6
NYT - 11 vaccines are in late-stage trials, including 4 in the United States. Pfizer’s progress could bode well for Moderna’s vaccine, which uses similar technology. Moderna has said it could have early results later this month. /7
NYT - The data released by Pfizer Monday was delivered in a news release, not a peer-reviewed medical journal. It is not conclusive evidence that the vaccine is safe and effective, and the initial finding of more than 90 percent efficacy could change as the trial goes on /8
NYT - "The first interim analysis was supposed to have taken place after 32 people in the study developed Covid-19, but the company said that, after discussing the matter with the F.D.A., it decided to wait until the second analysis — at 62 cases" https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/09/health/covid-vaccine-pfizer.html
Wide distribution of Pfizer’s vaccine will be a logistical challenge. Because it is made with mRNA, the doses will need to be kept at ultra cold temperatures. Pfizer has developed a special cooler to transport the vaccine, equipped with GPS-enabled thermal sensors /10
This thread explains the technical side of efficacy calculations & the difference between protection against severity and/or infection. The minimum goal here was the first at only 50% but they appear to have got the 2nd at 90% https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1310613702476017666
It shouldn't need to be said but this announcement makes any strategy other that minimising infections until enough vaccine is deployed to give herd immunity full on criminal. We don't have to 'I've with the virus' for an indefinite period, we have to minimise sickness & death
"Study enrolled 43,538 participants, with 42% having diverse backgrounds, and no serious safety concerns have been observed; Safety and additional efficacy data continue to be collected"
https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-vaccine-candidate-against
https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-vaccine-candidate-against
Pfizer’s estimate to file for authorization by 3rd week November was based on assumption FDA would be willing to accept 1-month safety data on half volunteers in study as initially planned, when it was to include 30k volunteers, not more than 44k as now https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/covid-19-vaccine-from-pfizer-and-biontech-is-strongly-effective-early-data-from-large-trial-indicate/
