Thread by @TheValuesVoter, Because of the way that various states counted the votes (some counted [...]

Because of the way that various states counted the votes (some counted Election Day votes first and then mail ballots; some did it in the opposite order), 10 states saw the winner change after half of the vote was counted.

5 of these states were won by Biden and 5 by Trump.

As a matter of fact, the 5 states that had Biden leading at the point where half of the vote was counted that eventually were won by Trump were worth MORE electoral votes than the 5 that had Trump leading at the halfway point that shifted to Biden.

The following states had Trump leading when 50% of the votes had been counted but shifted to Biden after more votes were counted:

Georgia (16)
Michigan (16)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virginia (13)
Wisconsin (10)

The following states had Biden leading when 50% of the votes had been counted but shifted to Trump after more votes were counted:

Iowa (6)
Kansas (6)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Texas (38)

Note that in many of these states, counting of the votes that had been legally cast on or before Election Day continued for some time after 11/3. In every election, it takes time to count votes.

But in this election, 56 million Americans voted by mail. And Trump encouraged his supporters to vote in person and told them to not trust mail voting (except in Florida).

Consequently, many Trump voters voted on Election Day. On the other hand, mail voting skewed toward Biden.

You can see all of the charts for how the leaders in each state changed as more of the vote came in at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage.

Click on a state, click on “Full Results,” “Full Race Results” and then see “Tracking the vote count.”

Presidential Election Results

See full results and maps from the 2020 presidential election.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

But if the vote counting had been stopped when only half the vote was in (which would have meant different things in different states), Trump would have won Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Virginia. And Biden would have won Iowa, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas.

Dave Wasserman ( @Redistrict) of the Cook Political Report had been warning for at least a week before the election of "red mirages" and "blue mirages" in different parts of the country.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1321187245626429441?s=20
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1321647861780676609?s=20 https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323625331857756162?s=20

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1321187245626429441?s=20

Meaning, some states looked like they were going to Trump but it was a mirage b/c the votes that would eventually swing the state to Biden hadn't yet been counted.

And some looked like they were going to Biden b/c the votes for Trump hadn't been counted yet.

All of this was made more complicated b/c:

- A partisan divide was created in the method of vote. Trump voters voted more in person (like he told them to). Biden voters voted more early and by mail.

- The fact states had different timing for counting different types of ballots.

Here's how the voting played out in the states where Trump was leading when half the vote was in but shifted to Biden (see the Tracking The Vote Count section):

Georgia
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia-president.html

Michigan
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-michigan-president.html

Pennsylvania: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-president.html

Pennsylvania Presidential Election Results

See full results and maps for the 2020 presidential election in Pennsylvania.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia-president.html

(States where Trump was leading when half the vote was in but shifted to Biden after more votes were counted - see Tracking The Vote Count Section)

Virginia
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-virginia-president.html

Wisconsin https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-wisconsin-president.html

Wisconsin Presidential Election Results

See full results and maps for the 2020 presidential election in Wisconsin.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-virginia-president.html

And here are the states where Biden led when half the vote was in but which shifted to Trump after more votes were counted. Again, see the "Tracking The Vote Count" section.

Iowa
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-iowa-president.html

Kansas
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-kansas-president.html

North Carolina https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-north-carolina-president.html

North Carolina Presidential Election Results

See full results and maps for the 2020 presidential election in North Carolina.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-iowa-president.html

(States where Biden led when half the vote was counted but which shifted to Trump after more votes were counted. See "Tracking The Vote Count")

Ohio
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-ohio-president.html

Texas https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-texas-president.html

Texas Presidential Election Results

See full results and maps for the 2020 presidential election in Texas.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-ohio-president.html

Ironically, for all the "Stop The Count" craziness, had the count been stopped, say, when half the vote had been in, that would have worked to Trump's disadvantage. Not to his advantage.

Biden has won the election so far 279-214. If the counting had been cut off after 50% of the votes had been counted, yes, Trump would have won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. But Biden would have still won and by an even greater electoral margin, 288-205.

(Run the numbers yourself at http://www.270towin.com ).

2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Create your own forecast for the 2020 presidential election

http://www.270towin.com

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