Since the beginning of the pandemic, one prominent story told for how we move forward (most recently in the JSM) is that suppression measures must be used to get cases low, after which test+trace will control transmission without generalized restrictions. 1/4

In the spring, the absence of a scientific argument that test+trace could achieve this (say, in the U.S.) should have tempered our confidence in this approach.

10 months in, continued blind faith in this approach is simply unscientific. Unlike other mitigation measures,... 2/4

it should always be possible to build a quantitative case that test+trace is significantly reducing transmission in a country, when that is indeed the case. Unfortunately, the publicly available data, e.g., from SK, do not suggest a very large effect. 3/4 https://twitter.com/WesPegden/status/1317970203167391744

The most basic form of fact-finding in the pandemic should be understanding what really is happening in other countries, rather than just looking for differences we can easily spot and assuming they are the whole explanation. 4/4 https://twitter.com/WesPegden/status/1325211971260702723