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1/ The disarray of the lame duck Trump White House, especially in the national security space, could be staggering. And our adversaries may try to take advantage.
A short THREAD on what could go wrong in the next 60 days, and how Congress can help fill the void.
A short THREAD on what could go wrong in the next 60 days, and how Congress can help fill the void.
2/ Reports suggest Trump's post-defeat rage could lead to the firings of Esper or Haspel. DoD and/or CIA could be leaderless by Thanksgiving. And if Trump refuses to concede, other national security officials could bail to try to save their careers. https://thehill.com/policy/defense/524812-talk-grows-of-trump-firings-at-pentagon-cia
3/ Emerging global powers could try to take advantage of the vacuum. At the top of that list is China. They could finish their crack down in Hong Kong, or they could make a move on the disputed islands with Taiwan. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4038660
4/ China's bet would be that a) Trump would be distracted by his election grievances, and b) his national security infrastructure might be hollowed out. They would gamble that by the time Biden was sworn in, their move would be a fait accompli and impossible to reverse.
5/ Russia and Turkey will also be watching. In Donbass, one aggressive move by Russian forces could destabilize the contact line. In the Armenia/Azerbaijan conflict, a distracted U.S. might be unable to prevent a dangerous escalation by Turkey or Russia. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/8/azerbaijan-says-it-seized-nakarno-karabakhs-2nd-largest-city
6/ These are just a few of many simmering crises.
Congress can fill part of the void. Bipartisan statements, resolutions, and legislation can make clear there will be a cross-party consensus around consequences for any escalatory actions by other powers in the transition period.
Congress can fill part of the void. Bipartisan statements, resolutions, and legislation can make clear there will be a cross-party consensus around consequences for any escalatory actions by other powers in the transition period.
