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1/ We need to talk about Europe.
The Covid test numbers coming out are staggering: France just reported 85,000 positive tests IN A DAY - equal to 425,000 positives in the US. Deaths are way up too: Belgium just reported 199, equal to 6,000 US deaths.
So. What& #39;s it mean?
The Covid test numbers coming out are staggering: France just reported 85,000 positive tests IN A DAY - equal to 425,000 positives in the US. Deaths are way up too: Belgium just reported 199, equal to 6,000 US deaths.
So. What& #39;s it mean?
2/ (Beyond the fact lockdowns don& #39;t work, that at best they delay the inevitable, and the hard lockdown countries didn& #39;t get anywhere near herd immunity in the spring.)
The short answer is: Probably - HOPEFULLY - the situation is not nearly as bad as the topline numbers seem...
The short answer is: Probably - HOPEFULLY - the situation is not nearly as bad as the topline numbers seem...
3/ The main reasons for optimism are: testing is so much more widespread than it was in the spring; the case mix has clearly changed - many, many positive tests are in younger people at much lower risk; we are better at managing serious cases (dexamethasone, no ventilators)...
4/ Right now France has about 4,000 patients in intensive care units - about twice as many as it did three weeks ago. But at the spring peak it had 7,000 - even though in all of April it reported only slightly more "cases" than it did yesterday...
5/ The counts have gotten very tricky not just because we are testing more but because PCR tests can pick up old virus; to some extent they are going to be biased up over time (I& #39;m sure there& #39;s a clever way to adjust for this, but I haven& #39;t tried to do it)...
6/ That said, the hospitalization increases are real and suggest deaths will stay high for a while. But France and the rest of Europe have NOT panicked; the new lockdown is notably less severe than the first. Most importantly, schools have stayed open... https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-economy-graphic/second-french-lockdown-less-severe-for-the-economy-one-week-in-idUKKBN27M229">https://uk.reuters.com/article/u...
7/ This is of course directly relevant in the US. Positive test counts in the US are almost certain to continue to rise - we are testing close to 10 million people a week - and as they do the calls for another lockdown will follow. EUROPE DID IT, Team Apocalypse will say...
8/ Except that the Europeans are keeping schools open and much of the US is under a crazy quilt of travel, event, and hospitality industry restrictions. So please, avoid the temptation to panic. The last eight months suggest strongly we will muddle through this wave too...
9/ And that the real danger is overreaction and foolish, ill-timed, and ultimately counterproductive restrictions.
Meanwhile, let& #39;s all hope Europe gets to the other side of the peak sooner rather than later.
Meanwhile, let& #39;s all hope Europe gets to the other side of the peak sooner rather than later.
