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1/ We need to talk about Europe.
The Covid test numbers coming out are staggering: France just reported 85,000 positive tests IN A DAY - equal to 425,000 positives in the US. Deaths are way up too: Belgium just reported 199, equal to 6,000 US deaths.
So. What's it mean?
The Covid test numbers coming out are staggering: France just reported 85,000 positive tests IN A DAY - equal to 425,000 positives in the US. Deaths are way up too: Belgium just reported 199, equal to 6,000 US deaths.
So. What's it mean?
2/ (Beyond the fact lockdowns don't work, that at best they delay the inevitable, and the hard lockdown countries didn't get anywhere near herd immunity in the spring.)
The short answer is: Probably - HOPEFULLY - the situation is not nearly as bad as the topline numbers seem...
The short answer is: Probably - HOPEFULLY - the situation is not nearly as bad as the topline numbers seem...
3/ The main reasons for optimism are: testing is so much more widespread than it was in the spring; the case mix has clearly changed - many, many positive tests are in younger people at much lower risk; we are better at managing serious cases (dexamethasone, no ventilators)...
4/ Right now France has about 4,000 patients in intensive care units - about twice as many as it did three weeks ago. But at the spring peak it had 7,000 - even though in all of April it reported only slightly more "cases" than it did yesterday...
5/ The counts have gotten very tricky not just because we are testing more but because PCR tests can pick up old virus; to some extent they are going to be biased up over time (I'm sure there's a clever way to adjust for this, but I haven't tried to do it)...
6/ That said, the hospitalization increases are real and suggest deaths will stay high for a while. But France and the rest of Europe have NOT panicked; the new lockdown is notably less severe than the first. Most importantly, schools have stayed open... https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-economy-graphic/second-french-lockdown-less-severe-for-the-economy-one-week-in-idUKKBN27M229
7/ This is of course directly relevant in the US. Positive test counts in the US are almost certain to continue to rise - we are testing close to 10 million people a week - and as they do the calls for another lockdown will follow. EUROPE DID IT, Team Apocalypse will say...
8/ Except that the Europeans are keeping schools open and much of the US is under a crazy quilt of travel, event, and hospitality industry restrictions. So please, avoid the temptation to panic. The last eight months suggest strongly we will muddle through this wave too...
9/ And that the real danger is overreaction and foolish, ill-timed, and ultimately counterproductive restrictions.
Meanwhile, let's all hope Europe gets to the other side of the peak sooner rather than later.
Meanwhile, let's all hope Europe gets to the other side of the peak sooner rather than later.
