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There are a lot of narratives building around what happened in state legislative races, but, in NC, Dems in most competitive legislative districts actually OVERPERFORMED Biden. #ncpol #ncga https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324474218944339968">https://twitter.com/Redistric...
NC saw a huge Trump-driven turnout surge in many parts of the state, especially Eastern & Western NC, that overwhelmed our chances in a number of competitive districts, but Dem legislative performance was comparatively strong.
In the competitive Dem-held mountain districts, both Dem incumbents significantly outperformed Biden. @RayRussellforNC (NC-H93, Boone area) beat Biden& #39;s margin by 3.8 points.
Further South, @JoeSamQueenNC (H119) outperformed Biden in Jackson & Swain counties by 2.7 pts. Haywood Co. hasn& #39;t tracked back early/absentee votes to precincts yet, but Queen beat Biden& #39;s margin in Election Day votes (which lean R 2:1) in precincts w/in his district by 8.5 pts.
Like the mountain region, Eastern NC saw a Trump surge too big for Dems to overcome. But both Dems running in competitive leg. districts in Northeastern NC outperformed Biden – @emilybnicholson (NC-H1) by 1.3 points and @tess_for (NC-S1) by 3.6 points.
In the most competitive suburban/rural-leaning NC Senate districts, Dems also outperformed Biden by a couple of points. @LegrandWSNC beat Biden& #39;s margin by 1.9 points in NC-S31 (Davie & Forsyth counties - Triad area).
In NC-S24, @JDWootenNC beat Biden& #39;s margin by 2.3 pts in Alamance Co. (comprising 3/4 of district). Guilford Co. (partially in district) hasn& #39;t tracked back early/absentee votes to precincts, but Wooten beat Biden& #39;s Election Day margin by 1.2 pts despite ED votes leaning R >2:1.
Even in sharply right-trending NC-H66, which Dems always expected to lose this election cycle, @BrewerforNC outperformed Biden by 3 points in Montgomery & Richmond counties (Stanly, partially in district, hasn& #39;t tracked back early/absentee votes to precincts yet).
Cabarrus County has also not yet tracked back early/absentee votes to precincts, but in Election Day votes (which also lean R ~2:1 in NC-H82 & NC-H83), @steelenchouse outperformed Biden& #39;s margin by 2.5 points, and @gailyoungNC outperformed Biden& #39;s margin by 5.1 points.
Even in districts w/added challenges, like well-established R incumbents (NC-H63, NC-H59) or lagging Dem turnout (NC-43 in Cumberland, the only major NC county w/flat Dem primary turnout this year) D candidates @rickyhurtadonc, @QuickforNC, & @KimberlyHardyNC ran even with Biden.
To put this in perspective, in 2016, Dems running in the 15 most competitive NC House districts UNDERPERFORMED Clinton by an avg of 4 points. In some of these districts, Dem leg. candidates underperformed by 10 points or more! We& #39;re not seeing anything like that this year.
From what we can see so far, even where Dems did underperform Biden, we& #39;re talking a couple of points, not the 8+ point trouncing we saw in a number of competitive districts in 2016. (New Hanover may be an exception – we& #39;ll see when early/absentee votes are tracked back there.)
What we can see right now is that the #ncgop narrative, in which Dem leg. candidates failed to ride Biden& #39;s coattails to victory, is just flat-out wrong. In reality, Republicans broadly underperformed Trump in districts drawn to favor them. #ncga #ncpol
