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There are a lot of narratives building around what happened in state legislative races, but, in NC, Dems in most competitive legislative districts actually OVERPERFORMED Biden. #ncpol #ncga https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324474218944339968
NC saw a huge Trump-driven turnout surge in many parts of the state, especially Eastern & Western NC, that overwhelmed our chances in a number of competitive districts, but Dem legislative performance was comparatively strong.
In the competitive Dem-held mountain districts, both Dem incumbents significantly outperformed Biden. @RayRussellforNC (NC-H93, Boone area) beat Biden's margin by 3.8 points.
Further South, @JoeSamQueenNC (H119) outperformed Biden in Jackson & Swain counties by 2.7 pts. Haywood Co. hasn't tracked back early/absentee votes to precincts yet, but Queen beat Biden's margin in Election Day votes (which lean R 2:1) in precincts w/in his district by 8.5 pts.
Like the mountain region, Eastern NC saw a Trump surge too big for Dems to overcome. But both Dems running in competitive leg. districts in Northeastern NC outperformed Biden – @emilybnicholson (NC-H1) by 1.3 points and @tess_for (NC-S1) by 3.6 points.
In the most competitive suburban/rural-leaning NC Senate districts, Dems also outperformed Biden by a couple of points. @LegrandWSNC beat Biden's margin by 1.9 points in NC-S31 (Davie & Forsyth counties - Triad area).
In NC-S24, @JDWootenNC beat Biden's margin by 2.3 pts in Alamance Co. (comprising 3/4 of district). Guilford Co. (partially in district) hasn't tracked back early/absentee votes to precincts, but Wooten beat Biden's Election Day margin by 1.2 pts despite ED votes leaning R >2:1.
Even in sharply right-trending NC-H66, which Dems always expected to lose this election cycle, @BrewerforNC outperformed Biden by 3 points in Montgomery & Richmond counties (Stanly, partially in district, hasn't tracked back early/absentee votes to precincts yet).
Cabarrus County has also not yet tracked back early/absentee votes to precincts, but in Election Day votes (which also lean R ~2:1 in NC-H82 & NC-H83), @steelenchouse outperformed Biden's margin by 2.5 points, and @gailyoungNC outperformed Biden's margin by 5.1 points.
Even in districts w/added challenges, like well-established R incumbents (NC-H63, NC-H59) or lagging Dem turnout (NC-43 in Cumberland, the only major NC county w/flat Dem primary turnout this year) D candidates @rickyhurtadonc, @QuickforNC, & @KimberlyHardyNC ran even with Biden.
To put this in perspective, in 2016, Dems running in the 15 most competitive NC House districts UNDERPERFORMED Clinton by an avg of 4 points. In some of these districts, Dem leg. candidates underperformed by 10 points or more! We're not seeing anything like that this year.
From what we can see so far, even where Dems did underperform Biden, we're talking a couple of points, not the 8+ point trouncing we saw in a number of competitive districts in 2016. (New Hanover may be an exception – we'll see when early/absentee votes are tracked back there.)
What we can see right now is that the #ncgop narrative, in which Dem leg. candidates failed to ride Biden's coattails to victory, is just flat-out wrong. In reality, Republicans broadly underperformed Trump in districts drawn to favor them. #ncga #ncpol
NC's leg. maps give Republicans an edge that would require a substantial swing to overcome. Instead, we're seeing a modest 2.4-point swing that moves us in the right direction but not enough to overcome the advantage Republicans gave themselves when they drew the maps.
Dem candidates put up a tough fight in what was always going to be an up-hill battle. Rs benefited from a final Trump surge (at the worst possible time w/redistricting ahead) but don't buy their narrative. Dems are gaining & we WILL #flipnc – we just need to keep fighting for it.
