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Now that President-elect Biden will take office on Jan 20, how might his administration approach key issues in the Middle East?
A thread on what some of Biden's advisors have been saying recently, with the caveat that this may not necessarily translate into policy once in govt
A thread on what some of Biden's advisors have been saying recently, with the caveat that this may not necessarily translate into policy once in govt
Tony Blinken was the senior foreign policy advisor to the Biden campaign and served as Deputy Secretary of State in Obama's 2nd term.
This July 2020 interview with the Hudson Institute is worth a read https://www.hudson.org/research/16210-transcript-dialogues-on-american-foreign-policy-and-world-affairs-a-conversation-with-former-deputy-secretary-of-state-antony-blinken
This July 2020 interview with the Hudson Institute is worth a read https://www.hudson.org/research/16210-transcript-dialogues-on-american-foreign-policy-and-world-affairs-a-conversation-with-former-deputy-secretary-of-state-antony-blinken
Blinken underscored the importance of the rebalancing of U.S. resources to Asia and predicted that ‘we would be doing less not more in the Middle East.’
Blinken stated also that a Biden administration would return to the Iran nuclear agreement (the JCPOA), provided Iran returns to compliance as well, and that the U.S. would work with partners and allies ‘to try and build a stronger and longer agreement.’
On Turkey, Blinken noted that as Vice President, Biden had ‘a long relationship with President Erdogan’ and that as president Biden would engage significantly with Erdogan ‘to see if we can work through a host of issues that we need to find ways to tackle together.’
Also in July 2020, Blinken reportedly told a conference call that ‘We would review the U.S. relationship with the government of Saudi Arabia, to which President Trump has basically given a blank check to pursue a disastrous set of policies' https://english.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2020/7/10/biden-would-drastically-change-relations-with-saudi-egypt-adviser
Jake Sullivan succeeded Blinken as National Security Advisor to Vice President Joe Biden in 2013. Within the Biden campaign, Sullivan has been managing the working groups and directing the hundreds of foreign policy and national security experts associated with the campaign.
Sullivan stated in August 2020 that the foreign policy of a Biden presidency would return to a multilateral approach with allies and partners and re-engage with international institutions such as the UN, the WTO, and the WHO. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/adviser-on-bidens-foreign-policy-start-at-home-and-repair-alliances/
Sullivan also expressed support for a drawdown of U.S. forces from the Middle East and South Asia in favor of a greater emphasis on economic and diplomatic engagement.
Sullivan forecast that the first 100 days of a Biden administration would include moving to rejoin the Paris Climate Accord, the JCPOA with Iran, pull U.S. troops out of Afghanistan, re-evaluate the current state of U.S.-China relations, & organize a summit of global democracies.
On Iran, Sullivan added that after rejoining the JCPOA the Biden administration would ‘immediately begin negotiating a follow-on agreement that deals with some of our ongoing concerns with Iran in respect of its nuclear program and its behavior’ in the region.
This would require the U.S. to ‘work with regional partners across the board to reduce tensions, to deescalate conflicts, to defuse incipient crises,’ as well as ‘pushing both our friends and our adversaries in the region toward the [negotiating] table.’
In June 2020, Daniel Benaim authored a lengthy report entitled ‘A Progressive Course Correction for U.S.-Saudi Relations,’ in which he argued for ‘reform, not rupture’ in the relationship and called for a 6-month strategic review of all aspects of U.S.-Saudi cooperation.
Benaim served in the Obama administration's State Department as a member of the Policy Planning Staff from February 2012 to January 2013 and then as Joe Biden’s foreign policy speechwriter and Middle East advisor.
Benaim argued that U.S. goals would be to ‘reassert its considerable leverage, reinforce lapsed expectations regarding Saudi behavior, and reorient regional diplomacy’ and bring an end to the seeming blank check approach of the Trump administration. https://tcf.org/content/report/progressive-course-correction-u-s-saudi-relations/
Specific actions that would be demanded of the Saudis would include an end to the war in Yemen and, together with the UAE, swiftly end their feud with Qatar.
Benaim called also for a structured regional dialogue with Iran and warned Saudi and Emirati leaders that they would need to ‘actively dispel the perception that their respective countries have become politicized actors.'
'Regional countries cannot both campaign to undermine the policies of a U.S. administration within the U.S. system and expect unstinting partnership in return (…) the Emirates has overplayed its hand opposing Obama, embracing Trump, and cheerleading maximum pressure on Iran.’
