Alarm bells for UK-US trade deal. Figure advising Biden campaign on foreign policy tells me talks will NOT be priority in first 100 days. Blow for chances of a speedy deal. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/11/08/exclusive-joe-biden-will-not-prioritise-uk-us-trade-deal-first/

This chimes with the mood music before the election - both Biden world folks noting it’s not high up on his agenda + UK sources acknowledging they need to convince him fast to focus on talks.

Take a look at Biden’s speech last night. He listed his policy priorities. Covid. Climate change. Tackling systematic racism. And yes the economy - UK wants to link trade talks to that agenda. But nothing about trade deals. Was a big issue for Trump. Isn’t for Biden.

There are now even MORE hurdles to speedy progress on trade talks than feared before the election. If Repubs hold the Senate, they can block Biden’s cabinet picks. That includes the US Trade Rep... who leads talks for the US. Plus he would need Repub votes to pass any deal.

Time is very much ticking. Biden loses the right to negotiate trade deals in July. It returns to Congress. No guarantee he gets it back. If UK hasn’t secured a deal and submitted it to Congress by then, the long grass beckons.

Foreign policy adviser to Biden campaign on whether UK-US trade talks would be a priority: “No, definitely not in the first 100 days."

More: “No one is going to want to test that out as the first piece of legislation.”

Point being we may have Repubs holding Senate and Dems holding House. Plus some Trumpy Repubs + left-wing Dems are sceptical of trade deals.

Voting on a trade deal text early politically risky.

None of which is to say Biden has some huge principled opposition to trade deal. He doesn’t as far as we know (providing agreement is reached on N Irish border issue). Interesting his close friend Chris Coons talked up trade talks on Marr this morning. But...

... it just is not a priority. Biden has slew of policies he wants to get done. A load of them are facing the chop from a Republican Senate. I can’t think of a single time in his hundreds of 2020 campaign events Biden talked about the UK-US trade deal (except that one tweet).

There’s confidence a UK-US deal will get done eventually under Biden. UK sources hopeful pre-vote. They would be, you could say, but not without reason. Congress is pro-UK, deal could be win-win. You don’t find loads of congressmen vowing to reject a deal (except N Irish issue).

It’s just the path for a quick deal is so narrow. Biden must pick a US Trade Rep, get Senate approval. Then work out trade talk objectives (same as Trump? Different? How?). Then actually negotiate. Then agree text. Then submit to Congress before July. Possible, but tricky!