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Through their votes, the American people have decided they want a new approach to the pandemic
But we have 73 days until new President takes office
73 hard days
Without action, additional 100,000 Americans will die by inauguration day. At least
So we can't wait to act
Thread
But we have 73 days until new President takes office
73 hard days
Without action, additional 100,000 Americans will die by inauguration day. At least
So we can't wait to act
Thread
The key is that we are not likely to get much action from the Trump Administration
So we need to look for leadership elsewhere
But first, a little data on how we got here
Let’s talk about this moment.
All data from @covid19tracking using 7-d moving avgs
2/n
So we need to look for leadership elsewhere
But first, a little data on how we got here
Let’s talk about this moment.
All data from @covid19tracking using 7-d moving avgs
2/n
First, the current surge started soon after labor day.
We went into labor day with about 35K new cases/day
And now, we are at about 100,000 per day
We went into labor day with about 35K new cases/day
And now, we are at about 100,000 per day
And as you’d expect, increases in hospitalizations followed about 2 weeks later
We had about 28,000 people in the hospital in mid-September
Now we are at 50,000 people hospitalized
We had about 28,000 people in the hospital in mid-September
Now we are at 50,000 people hospitalized
And sure enough, increases in deaths followed 2+ weeks after that
We started October with about 700 Americans dying daily
Today, we are at about 1000 Americans dying daily
We started October with about 700 Americans dying daily
Today, we are at about 1000 Americans dying daily
So now, we are identifying 100K-120K cases / day
This is the acceleration phase. Infections are rising fast
But there is one more piece of bad news:
% of tests coming back positive has risen a lot
It was around 5% in early September, now it is closer to 9%
This is the acceleration phase. Infections are rising fast
But there is one more piece of bad news:
% of tests coming back positive has risen a lot
It was around 5% in early September, now it is closer to 9%
That means we are missing many more infections today than we were 2 months ago
Here's the kicker:
Suspect the true number of new infections in US now is somewhere between 300K and 400K. Per day
I know. Depressing. But bear with me
Will get to what we can do shortly
7/10
Here's the kicker:
Suspect the true number of new infections in US now is somewhere between 300K and 400K. Per day
I know. Depressing. But bear with me
Will get to what we can do shortly
7/10
And 1,000 deaths a day today?
Represents infections from a month ago
Today's infections are 3X that
Would not be surprising to get to 2000+ deaths a day in December
So when public health experts say they're worried.
This is why
So can we avoid this?
Absolutely!
8/10
Represents infections from a month ago
Today's infections are 3X that
Would not be surprising to get to 2000+ deaths a day in December
So when public health experts say they're worried.
This is why
So can we avoid this?
Absolutely!
8/10
So what do we need to do?
5 things
1. We should not accept that Trump team will do nothing. We pay them. We need to find ways to get them to do more
2. Congress should get $ to states for testing, schools, etc
3. States need to ramp up testing
They can with more money
9/10
5 things
1. We should not accept that Trump team will do nothing. We pay them. We need to find ways to get them to do more
2. Congress should get $ to states for testing, schools, etc
3. States need to ramp up testing
They can with more money
9/10
4 Everyone just needs to wear a mask
Come on people. To save tens of thousands of lives? No brainer
5 the biggest problem is indoor gatherings – formal (dining) and informal (house get-togethers)
To quote @GovRaimondo people need to knock it off
We all have to do more
10/11
Come on people. To save tens of thousands of lives? No brainer
5 the biggest problem is indoor gatherings – formal (dining) and informal (house get-togethers)
To quote @GovRaimondo people need to knock it off
We all have to do more
10/11
We have hard couple of months ahead
In 73 days, we'll have a team in place that has promised to use science to drive policy
Good
But they won't be able to fix things on day 1
There is a lot we can do now
All of us: Congress, governors, mayors, us as individuals
11/12
In 73 days, we'll have a team in place that has promised to use science to drive policy
Good
But they won't be able to fix things on day 1
There is a lot we can do now
All of us: Congress, governors, mayors, us as individuals
11/12
If we do those 5 things: push for more federal action, get congress to provide $, governors to push testing, we wear masks and avoid indoor gatherings
We can keep schools open, save lives, prevent healthcare system from collapse
And that would make for a much better 2021
Fin
We can keep schools open, save lives, prevent healthcare system from collapse
And that would make for a much better 2021
Fin
