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/THREAD/Next up in my #2021PlayerBreakdowns Series is:
Trent Grisham, OF
San Diego #Padres
24 years old
Drafted: 2015 Round 1; Pick 15 (MIL)
Let’s get started...
2020 Stat Line:
59 G
252 PA
215 AB
.251/.352/.456
10 HR
42 R
26 RBI
10 SB
.349 wOBA
121 wRC+
2.3 WAR
12.3 BB%
25.4 K%
Playoffs:
6 G
27 PA
22 AB
.136/.296/.182
0 HR
1 R
2 RBI
0 SB
.242 wOBA
50 wRC+
14.8 BB%
40.8 K%
Combined:
65 G
279 PA
237 AB
10 HR
43 R
28 RBI
10 SB
59 G
252 PA
215 AB
.251/.352/.456
10 HR
42 R
26 RBI
10 SB
.349 wOBA
121 wRC+
2.3 WAR
12.3 BB%
25.4 K%
Playoffs:
6 G
27 PA
22 AB
.136/.296/.182
0 HR
1 R
2 RBI
0 SB
.242 wOBA
50 wRC+
14.8 BB%
40.8 K%
Combined:
65 G
279 PA
237 AB
10 HR
43 R
28 RBI
10 SB
Grisham started his career as a hyped MIL prospect who at AAA smashed .381 w/ 13 HR & 6 SB in just 134 AB.
But after failing to impress in a short stint in the majors (.231 in 156 AB), the shine began to dull.
Ending w/ Grisham being shipped to SD in the Luis Urias trade.
But after failing to impress in a short stint in the majors (.231 in 156 AB), the shine began to dull.
Ending w/ Grisham being shipped to SD in the Luis Urias trade.
Grisham came into 2020 as a hyped sleeper in fantasy due to power/speed potential.
The hype grew even further as playing time roadblocks like Franchy Cordero & Manuel Margot were shipped out of town.
Long story short, Trent got his opportunity & shined in the shortened season.
The hype grew even further as playing time roadblocks like Franchy Cordero & Manuel Margot were shipped out of town.
Long story short, Trent got his opportunity & shined in the shortened season.
Small Sample Size Theater:
2020 Batted Ball Profile:
LD - 24.8%
GB - 40.7%
FB - 34.5%
Pull - 44.4%
Middle - 33.3%
Opp - 22.2%
Hard Contact - 32.7%
Med Contact - 50.3%
Soft Contact - 17.0%
Exit Velocity - 88.3 mph
Max EV - 111.9 mph
Barrel % - 11.0
Launch Angle - 13.5
2020 Batted Ball Profile:
LD - 24.8%
GB - 40.7%
FB - 34.5%
Pull - 44.4%
Middle - 33.3%
Opp - 22.2%
Hard Contact - 32.7%
Med Contact - 50.3%
Soft Contact - 17.0%
Exit Velocity - 88.3 mph
Max EV - 111.9 mph
Barrel % - 11.0
Launch Angle - 13.5
This is where I remind you that using avg EV can be misleading.
Grisham’s avg EV of 88.3 (154th) does not look impressive, mainly due to an 84.7 EV on ground balls.
Do we care about the EV of GB? No.
We want to know how hard the ball it hit in the air & how often.
Grisham’s avg EV of 88.3 (154th) does not look impressive, mainly due to an 84.7 EV on ground balls.
Do we care about the EV of GB? No.
We want to know how hard the ball it hit in the air & how often.
Instead let’s concentrate on:
- 94.1 mph EV on FBLD
- 111.9 mph Max EV
These metrics give a better peek at Grisham’s hitting potential.
- Max EV 62nd of 257 (qualified hitters)
- FBLD EV 101st of 257
FBLD EV is the same as:
Manny Machado
Michael Conforto
Jose Ramirez
- 94.1 mph EV on FBLD
- 111.9 mph Max EV
These metrics give a better peek at Grisham’s hitting potential.
- Max EV 62nd of 257 (qualified hitters)
- FBLD EV 101st of 257
FBLD EV is the same as:
Manny Machado
Michael Conforto
Jose Ramirez
Those are interesting names to be in the same range as.
If you remember my threads last season, I was confident in a full JRam turnaround due to LA adjustments (back into a LD hitter)
Conforto detractors said EV was too low. BUT, again he is a LD hitter.
Guess what Trent is?
If you remember my threads last season, I was confident in a full JRam turnaround due to LA adjustments (back into a LD hitter)
Conforto detractors said EV was too low. BUT, again he is a LD hitter.
Guess what Trent is?
That’s right!
Grisham carried a 24.8% LD rate in 2020 (24th in MLB)
He was 12th of the 24 in hard contact & had 12th lowest GB rate
In fact, he also carried nearly identical Barrels/BBE as Machado & Conforto (11.2)
But it’s important to understand the kind of hitter he is.
Grisham carried a 24.8% LD rate in 2020 (24th in MLB)
He was 12th of the 24 in hard contact & had 12th lowest GB rate
In fact, he also carried nearly identical Barrels/BBE as Machado & Conforto (11.2)
But it’s important to understand the kind of hitter he is.
It seems easy to notice comparable stats between players & mistakenly project success from one to the other.
So let’s point out the important differences: Max EV, sd(LA), & wOBAcon between:
Grisham, Conforto, Machado, JRam, & 2 mystery players!
So let’s point out the important differences: Max EV, sd(LA), & wOBAcon between:
Grisham, Conforto, Machado, JRam, & 2 mystery players!
Let’s start w/ Max EV.
Why so important?
This gives a measure to a hitters potential & is a singular data point w/ no need for a large sample size!
Which is great for our purposes.
Machado 115.7
Conforto 114.4
Ramirez 114.3
Grisham 111.9
Mystery A 111.3
Mystery B 109.0
Why so important?
This gives a measure to a hitters potential & is a singular data point w/ no need for a large sample size!
Which is great for our purposes.
Machado 115.7
Conforto 114.4
Ramirez 114.3
Grisham 111.9
Mystery A 111.3
Mystery B 109.0
Grisham falls short of the more elite hitters in Max EV.
This should not be a surprise but a useful tool to help us project his ceiling going into 2021.
Max EV could indicate potential to unlock power. But instead we see a pedestrian HC% & overreaching 20% HR/RB rate.
This should not be a surprise but a useful tool to help us project his ceiling going into 2021.
Max EV could indicate potential to unlock power. But instead we see a pedestrian HC% & overreaching 20% HR/RB rate.
On to sd(LA), which in short is consistently or “tightness” of a launch angle.
In other words, how well a hitter controls the bat.
Lower number, tighter LA, more consistent contact.
Ramirez: 25.7
Conforto: 26.6
Mystery B: 26.8
Machado: 28.6
Grisham: 29.6
Mystery A: 30.2
In other words, how well a hitter controls the bat.
Lower number, tighter LA, more consistent contact.
Ramirez: 25.7
Conforto: 26.6
Mystery B: 26.8
Machado: 28.6
Grisham: 29.6
Mystery A: 30.2
Again, Grisham falls short of more established line drive hitters.
This is a concern in trying to form a confident projection. Young hitters will be prone to inconsistency.
If he is going to become a reliable fantasy stud AND do it hitting LD, you want to see this area improve
This is a concern in trying to form a confident projection. Young hitters will be prone to inconsistency.
If he is going to become a reliable fantasy stud AND do it hitting LD, you want to see this area improve
Lastly we look at wOBAcon.
This metric measures offensive value more accurately than avg & eliminates walks & hit by pitch so that we see the value on contact only.
Conforto .493
Ramirez .460
Machado .432
Grisham .415
Mystery B .408
Mystery A .348
This metric measures offensive value more accurately than avg & eliminates walks & hit by pitch so that we see the value on contact only.
Conforto .493
Ramirez .460
Machado .432
Grisham .415
Mystery B .408
Mystery A .348
This is less sticky considering small sample size. But it hammers home that Grisham should not be considered in that next level.
He is far closer to our mystery players:
A - Ramon Laureano
B - Kole Calhoun
But we are talking contact only, not discipline or speed. That is next
He is far closer to our mystery players:
A - Ramon Laureano
B - Kole Calhoun
But we are talking contact only, not discipline or speed. That is next
Plate Discipline is a major part of Grisham’s game:
SwStr: 8.0%
Contact: 78.8%
Swing: 37.9%
O-Swing: 20.4%
Z-Swing: 60.5%
O-Contact: 67.5%
Z-Contact: 83.8%
Trent posted a SwStr% 3.3 points better than MLB avg w/ O-Swing over 10 points superior.
He does NOT chase.
SwStr: 8.0%
Contact: 78.8%
Swing: 37.9%
O-Swing: 20.4%
Z-Swing: 60.5%
O-Contact: 67.5%
Z-Contact: 83.8%
Trent posted a SwStr% 3.3 points better than MLB avg w/ O-Swing over 10 points superior.
He does NOT chase.
So what about his 25.4 K%?
It has a lot to do w/ a 37.9 Swing% (8 points below MLB avg.
Grisham is simply too passive w/ a 21.2 CallStr%
We’ve seen this story before with Cavan Biggio. More BB. More K.
So despite having a great eye, he is a net negative on pitches in the zone
It has a lot to do w/ a 37.9 Swing% (8 points below MLB avg.
Grisham is simply too passive w/ a 21.2 CallStr%
We’ve seen this story before with Cavan Biggio. More BB. More K.
So despite having a great eye, he is a net negative on pitches in the zone
Grisham has an above average contact rate, but is slightly misleading since his Z-Contact% (contact within K zone) is slightly below MLB avg.
A more aggressive approach could lead to more power/counting stats, but could also limit on base potential without batting avg gains.
A more aggressive approach could lead to more power/counting stats, but could also limit on base potential without batting avg gains.
Outside of a hitter friendly environment in AAA, Grisham seems to be a .300 BABIP player.
An annual batting avg of .250 or below seems likely in the majors without a tangible change in approach.
But he is young, so that is obviously a possibility.
An annual batting avg of .250 or below seems likely in the majors without a tangible change in approach.
But he is young, so that is obviously a possibility.
Now, the thing that separates Grisham from most of the line drove hitters we have talked about: SB
In 2017 Trent stole 37 bases in high A for the Brewers, but has since stolen 17 in 688 PA in AA, 6 SB in 183 PA in AAA & 11 SB in 435 PA in the majors.
20 SB in 2021 is reasonable
In 2017 Trent stole 37 bases in high A for the Brewers, but has since stolen 17 in 688 PA in AA, 6 SB in 183 PA in AAA & 11 SB in 435 PA in the majors.
20 SB in 2021 is reasonable
Main takeaways:
- Do not worry about his avg EV, as his FBLD & Max EV both check out
- Be prepared for HR/FB to normalize. 20-25 HR seems fair
- High variant LA & conservative swing% could keep avg & overall ceiling capped
- Speed is real. Just a matter of opportunity.
- Do not worry about his avg EV, as his FBLD & Max EV both check out
- Be prepared for HR/FB to normalize. 20-25 HR seems fair
- High variant LA & conservative swing% could keep avg & overall ceiling capped
- Speed is real. Just a matter of opportunity.
There is no arguing the upside Grisham possesses.
But so much is being gambled on a 60-game breakout & could push him into bust territory.
Talent is real. But so is the batting avg downside & likely power regression.
I would like to see him be more aggressive at the plate.
But so much is being gambled on a 60-game breakout & could push him into bust territory.
Talent is real. But so is the batting avg downside & likely power regression.
I would like to see him be more aggressive at the plate.
Grisham’s current ADP (11/8/20 can/will change no doubt) according to the #2EarlyMocks is 57.8
That is expensive.
Currently about 40 picks before Tommy Pham & a full round before Austin Meadows.
I would need Grisham to fall into the 70s before I would be interested. ATM.
That is expensive.
Currently about 40 picks before Tommy Pham & a full round before Austin Meadows.
I would need Grisham to fall into the 70s before I would be interested. ATM.
What to expect from Trent Grisham in 2021:
540 AB
.248/.345/.448
23 HR
88 R
75 RBI
18 SB
Is he Michael Conforto w/ speed? Not likely.
More like Ramon Laureano w/ plate discipline?
But you can draft Pham, Buxton, Laureano, or even V.Robles for a fraction of the investment.
540 AB
.248/.345/.448
23 HR
88 R
75 RBI
18 SB
Is he Michael Conforto w/ speed? Not likely.
More like Ramon Laureano w/ plate discipline?
But you can draft Pham, Buxton, Laureano, or even V.Robles for a fraction of the investment.
