Was waiting for more data (don't trust exit polls), but looking like Trump got larger share of some minority groups across country (Lumbee Tribe, Mexican Americans in S Texas, black men, Some Asian groups in CA), often from low starting base

Unifying them is all are non-college

Most are in counties & communities with very low college graduation rates & can be described as poor, or "left behind"

Type of places I wrote about in my book. (Lumbee Tribe was part of a chapter edited out)

They also have larger share of non-voters https://americancompass.org/the-commons/the-non-voter/

There is a lot of reasons going on, but helpful to remember most Americans treat politics & who they favor, like a Sports team

Unlike us on twitter, they don't feel they are players on the team, but instead fans

Who they then support is largely about joining a social group

How Dems/GOP present themselves, as social groups, as parties you would want to attend, can matter far more than details of 200 page platform we on twitter fight over

Like, many newer immigrants love America in unflinching & emotional way that Academics would find embarrassing

Dems, despite still having voting base that is lower income than GOP, has moved over last decade towards presenting themselves as the party of highly educated

The image when it filters down to rural voters in TX, or Detroit, feels like it is the party of highly educated wonks

Which team do you support? Who are the other fans, and do they "feel like you want to hang out with the"

And the Dems are seen more and more, given who has the energy in the party and how they present themselves, as the part of "Academics and other wonky types",

It isn't a coastal thing. It isn't "The party of out of touch coastal elites"

It is far more local than that. It is becoming party, "of that neighborhood across town near the college that you feel uncomfortable in, but does have that fancy coffee shop & bar you go to when flush"

Here is a small thread I did on Robeson County NC. A place that once voted strongly Dem, but now Trump.

It is a very very diverse (and poor) county https://twitter.com/Chris_arnade/status/1324451760908492808?s=20

Dems won! So why worry?

Because trend is not good. Because they got the "Demographics is our destiny" thing backwards

Presenting as party of the well educated means you risk becoming the party of only a few scattered enclaves (Austin, NYC, SF, Madison) across America

Will just add, of all the Dem presidential candidates, Biden understands this the best.

He was their best candidate to fight & combat the over-educated wonk trend.

So with him leading the party, there is a chance they can get back to their roots & base.