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my prediction is that trump will fade from public view by end of 2021 and not run again in 2024. i disagree that there's a 'trump base' as much as there's a republican base with a clear sense of priorities (just like there are dems with their own clear sense of priorities) 1/n
it's convenient for narratives to have heroes and leaders to coalesce a storyline around, but in reality everyone has their own crosses to bear, and a neat prioritized list of causes they care about, even if they couldn't articulate it precisely. 2/n
growing up in a multi-party democracy, this isn't unusual to see in practice - people choose the political party that represents the cause you care most about - and these parties have to then work with each other, through coalitions, to create governments 3/n
in the US, you *have* to choose one of two parties or your vote doesn't really count. so, you find the cause you care most about, and that's your party. the probability that *all* of your causes will line up exactly with that one party, of course, is super low 4/n
we know this: hence phrases like 'fiscal conservative, socially liberal' etc. but we forget all this in the blue/red heat of the moment during the elections. but really, everybody around the country is only voting for their top issue 5/n
where i'm going with this: there's no 'Trump brought the people to the votes'. people voted for their top issue because they want their take on that issue to win. if there was someone else at the top of the ticket, they'd vote the same way 6/n
why was there such a huge turnout? because they feared the other guys were going to overrun their point of view, and showed up in force. there was no Trump turnout, there was no Blue wave. just people voting for their top issue 7/n
here's the thing, the 'top issue' could be a name-brand cause like pro-choice/pro-life, or pedestrian like 'do I feel better now vs 4 years ago?', but there's no magic to this. you can get into a blue/red frenzy but the crowds coalesce around issues 8/n
the basket of issues keeps changing, and as they say all politics is local/personal, but the country somehow shuffles the issues and the party championing those issues in a way that the red/blue groups come out to be 50/50. that's sorta good 9/n
but i'd propose that the way we're looking at polling, turnout/candidates and the way forward to heal is all wrong. here's some thoughts. (using twitter to refine my thoughts here, in public) 10/n
polling: if people are voting their top issue, the clusters that the pollsters create should not be demo/education/etc - they should just be based on the top 20 issues of the time. how those issues change over time would tell you much more about how the elections would go 11/n
yes, we know that economy is everyone's #1 issue, but i'm suggesting going much more granular and down the line with all kinds of issues, and this would cover the 'swing voter' better than 'cubans in florida' tbh 12/n
next, while we *want* to believe that people vote for media stars like reagan and trump, in reality it's just that certain issues were activated by them and brought to the fore, and that issue segment voted with their ballots 13/n
it's too simplistic to say that 50% of the country is racist and voted for trump. it's just that there was some issue (e.g. pro-life) that was just *so* important to them that they *had* to vote republican, no matter who the presidential candidate was 14/n
similarly, this time around, the fact that trump is racist was *such* a #1 issue for people that they voted for biden *even though* they are traditional republicans. again, their top issue, racism, is what actually brought them to the polls 15/n
at long last, my point: republican issues are what republicans care about. for *some* republicans, the #1 issue is that they want an entertaining leader or a white nationalist etc. these are in a very very tiny minority (i think/hope) 16/n
there is no existential crisis in GOP. trump was an anomaly. even if he didn't exist, what issues the party stands for don't go away, and people who care about them will not suddenly defect to democrats 17/n
so you can expect to see GOP stop kow-towing to trump in a hurry, and deny him the bully pulpit quite rapidly. fox's thesis is not around trump the entertainer (that's nbc's thesis), they want the GOP audience, which is based on a basket of issues, so they'll move on 18/n
as his role as entertainer is marred (half the TV audience hates him now), GOP doesn't care for him, Fox won't carry him live, Twitter will ban him, the free content distribution will come to a standstill 19/n
The cultish corners will still glorify him, but that will fade as a new leader with content distribution potential is found to rally around. ergo! no Trump in 2024. n/n
