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Now that the election is over, I wanted to do a thread of my thoughts on it.
1/ Partisanship is at an all-time high in this country right now, thatâs the main reason why turnout was so high. People wanted to ensure their candidate won, even if they didnât really agree with all of their policies.
2/ This really reaffirms the need for federalism, a president having this much power makes partisanship worse. People in America shouldnât have to be scared when someone they didnât support becomes President.
3/ The Biden coalition is likely the largest coalition in modern history in terms of ideological diversity. Unfortunately for Biden, itâs probably gonna fall apart soon. A coalition going from socialists to center-right moderates isnât sustainable.
4/ That being said, the 2022 midterm elections are gonna be great for Republicans, theyâre likely gonna win back the house and several seats in the senate. Biden is gonna have to be bi-partisan to pass any legislation.
5/ Now on Trump, heâs 1 of now 5 Presidents in history to lose re-election. This is a pretty big deal, history is gonna definitely remember that as one of the main aspects of his presidency.
6/ Trump gained with certain groups of Hispanic voters, though it should be stated that Hispanics arenât a monolith, there are like, 15 different nationalities that are under that umbrella and treating them all as one group is wrong, this election showed that.
7/ The groups Trump gained with the most were Cubans and Venezuelans, much accredited to his strong anti-socialist message and his pro-life stance. Trumpâs numbers with Mexicans however, still werenât that great.
8/ To visualize, look at AZ and FL the former, he lost around 66% of the Hispanic vote, in the latter, he got 47%. As for blacks, Trump technically improved, but not by much.
9/ Interestingly enough, the minority voter outreach program was drawn up by moderate Republicans following the 2012 elections. If Trump could do what he did, imagine what a non-toxic Republican could do.
10/ Trump did collapse a bit with the white working class however. In my view, this shows that having an electoral strategy that revolves around them isnât a viable, or reliable long term strategy. Especially with broad generational and more nuanced demographic trends.
11/ Obviously suburbanites rejected Trump, this should cause some long-term concerns for Republicans, but thereâs nuance to this. Suburbanites moved towards Republicans this election compare to last, just not Trump.
12/ Looking at what happened, Republicans should seek to be pragmatic in the future, do whatâll work long-term and balance that with the short-term. Weâve got a perfect opportunity to do that now.
13/ In my opinion, Republicans can and should expand our support among suburbanites AND the working class, and maybe even urban areas as well. It first starts with rhetoric, there shouldnât be any references to a âreal America,â weâre all American, no matter geography or region.
14/ Nixon didnât break the new deal coalition by trashing urbanites, or calling urban areas a ârodent infested mess.â He won by proposing non-divisive solutions to the problems many Americans were facing, we should try to emulate that.
15/ In my opinion, we should be more to the center on economics, but in a pragmatic way. Generally, we should support a practical social safety net, while also supporting free trade policies/lower taxes for the middle class.
16/ Free trade and immigration are super popular right now, and donât show any signs of slowing down.
17/ On social issues, we should still be right of center, politically we should support freedom up to externality, and have personal support of formality civility. Patriotism can counter the oikophobia of the left. Studies show younger Republicans are already on this route.
18/ On the issue of foreign policy, the most efficient, both politically and effectively is to be pragmatically hawkish. Not be too gung-ho with invasions, but still support Americanism worldwide.
19/ To summarize, I hope that in the next 4 years we see a de-escalation of politics in this country. And pragmatic, bi-partisan solutions to this nationâs problems. I genuinely wish Joe Biden the best in achieving that, itâs not gonna be easy, but I believe in America.
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