Will post my readings of #BiharElection2020 , what I could see. Do check this thread and retweet if agreed.
Basically ,3rd Term of CM Nitish Kumar has been lacklustre. Initially he started his term as with RJD as ally but did U turn n joined BJP led NDA in 2017. (1/n)
#ExitPolls

However ,the improvement which was expected in Bihar government’s performance with RJD our and BJP in in 2017 did not take place. The state BJP leadership under Sushil Modi has also been a failure in Nitish’s third term ! #BiharElection2020
(2/n)

While in LS elections the candidate was Modi n hence people voted for him overwhelmingly despite Nitish n state BJP’s many shortcomings, due to the fact that Central schemes had their impact down to village levels. But now many voters distinguish between LS n VS elections. (3/n)

Nitish and state BJP while freeing Bihar from jungle raj of Lalu’s RJD did not do much to bring industries to Bihar, despite it having every potential.

On the contrary , despite Lalu being in jail , his son Tejashwi Yadav has managed to hold his party together and... (4/n)

... has single handedly hit all the right chords focused on padhai , kamaai, davaai , sichaai. He knew that elders would have memories of Lalu’s 15 years jungle raaj from 1990-2005 but those who are under 25 would not have and he focused more on that. (5/n)
#BiharElection2020

In the NDA campaign , BJP focused on Central government’s achievements, PAST (pre 2015) achievements of Nitish government and memories of RJD’s Lalu’s jungle raaj.

However like I said , people are distinguishing between LS and VS elections. (6/n)
#BiharElection2020 #ExitPolls

For Central government’s achievements they overwhelmingly voted for Modi (39/40 LS seats). And have rewarded Nitish for his past achievements by re electing him twice (2010-2015). (7/n)
#BiharElection2020 #ExitPolls

So these things would seldom guarantee a third victory for Nitish led NDA.

Moreover ,even in 2015 ,when Nitish and Lalu were in pre poll alliance and fighting BJP, BJP had focused on jungle raaj memories and warned that if Lalu’s RJD comes to power,jungle raaj will return. (8/n)

However RJD won more seats than Nitish’s JDU in 2015 and despite being in power there from 2015-2017 , jungle raaj DID NOT RETURN in that period.

So there r lesser reasons for the younger voters to fear jungle raaj, which like I said was part of BJP’s campaign. (9/n) #ExitPolls

Another reason why I feel that jungle raaj may not return to OLD LEVELS even in an RJD regime is that this is no longer the 1990s. Infrastructure in Bihar is much better today than 1990s n advent of social media means that many major crimes do get highlighted. (10/n) #ExitPolls

Also , elections take place using VVPAT EVMs now and Central forces everywhere so no party bringing back jungle raaj of 1990s would survive the next election, unlike 1990s when ballot papers which led to booth capturing and rigging ensured 15 years of RJD rule. (11/n)

However , there maybe an increase in crime rate under RJD,even if I don’t see it being to jungle raj levels.
Many #ExitPolls are predicting close fight, with most giving an advantage to MGB. What would be the final results I don’t know though I expect MGB advantage. (12/n)

The current period is anyways a tough time for both Modi and BJP. This tough time will last atleast till April-May 2021. I trust BJP to reinvent and recover like it did even after 2015 debacles. Because back then it was felt road ahead would be difficult but BJP managed. (13/n)

I hope whichever government comes to Bihar would work to take the state to it’s potential. Let’s see what the final results come out to be ! End of thread. Do retweet/share if you feel like. (14/n) (n/n) #BiharElection2020 #ExitPolls #BiharElection2020