Before Maricopa's report last night, Trump needed to win all that was left in AZ by 15.1%.

After that report, he needed to win what was left by 17.3%.

After Pinal today, he needed to win what's left by 17.0%

After Maricopa just now, he needs to win what's left by 17.4%.

This is still the main caveat I have: if there are a bit votes than the SoS is reporting.

(But the state's estimates of what's left have been stable, once you account for latest Pinal/Yuma/Maricopa drops): https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1324897274112126977

Other cavat: 18% of ballots left are now from red Pinal, which is arguably the only county with a lot of ballots left where Trump is certain to cross threshold (and then some).

But then again, he won't cross it in Apache or Coconino. And what's left in Maricopa is diff. type.