Before Maricopa& #39;s report last night, Trump needed to win all that was left in AZ by 15.1%.

After that report, he needed to win what was left by 17.3%.

After Pinal today, he needed to win what& #39;s left by 17.0%

After Maricopa just now, he needs to win what& #39;s left by 17.4%.

This is still the main caveat I have: if there are a bit votes than the SoS is reporting.

(But the state& #39;s estimates of what& #39;s left have been stable, once you account for latest Pinal/Yuma/Maricopa drops): https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html">https://arizona.vote/ballot-pr... https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1324897274112126977">https://twitter.com/Taniel/st...

Other cavat: 18% of ballots left are now from red Pinal, which is arguably the only county with a lot of ballots left where Trump is certain to cross threshold (and then some).

But then again, he won& #39;t cross it in Apache or Coconino. And what& #39;s left in Maricopa is diff. type.