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The John Snow memorandum.
I waited way too long to give my statement. Now itâs time. Iâll attach a screenshot for every text passage and give my statement to that.
Thread
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I waited way too long to give my statement. Now itâs time. Iâll attach a screenshot for every text passage and give my statement to that.
Thread
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Saying there are (more than) 35 million infections and 1 million deaths is not entirely true. In fact we have around 700 million infections (according to estimations from the #WHO and the @TheEconomist)
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https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/who-10-per-cent-of-world-s-people-may-have-been-infected-with-virus-1.5132870
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/26/the-covid-19-pandemic-is-worse-than-official-figures-show
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https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/who-10-per-cent-of-world-s-people-may-have-been-infected-with-virus-1.5132870
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/26/the-covid-19-pandemic-is-worse-than-official-figures-show
A paper from South Korea says that we only find 1 out of 10 cases. To believe we only have 35 million cases is extremely unscientific
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7384903/
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https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7384903/
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Indeed, something needs to be done, but not excessive and disproportionate life restrictions. A strategy focused on the protection of vulnerable people like the #GBD suggests is a more valid plan to get the #pandemic to an end.
https://gbdeclaration.org/
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https://gbdeclaration.org/
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Airborne is correct. But high infectivity (R0) does not seem to tell the whole story as it is explosive in clusters, with 10-20% of people #superspreading 80% of cases. Even more, 70% of patients did not infect anyone else
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https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/
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https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/
Incorrect. #COVID19 IFR is much lower than first assumed. Itâs definitely in the range of a severe #flu!
Paper from John Ioannidis, published by the #WHO. Total IFR of 0.23%. 0.05% for people under the age for 70
https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf
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Paper from John Ioannidis, published by the #WHO. Total IFR of 0.23%. 0.05% for people under the age for 70
https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf
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#CDC's best estimation for #COVID19 IFR: If you are under the age of 70 your chances of dying because of #COVID19 are under 1%
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
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https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
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The #WHO currently thinks that 10% of the world's population were already infected by #SARS_CoV_2. That would mean an IFR of ca 0.13% (calculation not fully correct)
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/who-10-per-cent-of-world-s-people-may-have-been-infected-with-virus-1.5132870
See above
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/26/the-covid-19-pandemic-is-worse-than-official-figures-sho
there is much more #evidence than this
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https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/who-10-per-cent-of-world-s-people-may-have-been-infected-with-virus-1.5132870
See above
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2020/09/26/the-covid-19-pandemic-is-worse-than-official-figures-sho
there is much more #evidence than this
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Real #longcovid, post-infection or longer lasting / more debilitating #symptoms of #COVID19 are no different than #flu or mononucleosis
9/x https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5596521/
9/x https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5596521/
Immunity is at least 6 months. Presumed longer based on other coronavirus, up to a year. Long enough for seasonal herd immunity and striking natural balance over time.
10/x https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.21.20159178v1
https://www.jimmunol.org/content/early/2020/09/03/jimmunol.2000839
10/x https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.21.20159178v1
https://www.jimmunol.org/content/early/2020/09/03/jimmunol.2000839
If immunity does not last, vaccines will not be effective either, so this argument does not justify moving the problem to the future.
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mass- #rapidtesting might exacerbate an already difficult contact tracing. However, faster, less sensitive antigen based tests might more accurately predict contagiousness and cluster formation. Tracing & isolation of asymptomatic and not contagious people is a waste of time
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Lockdowns did not prevent deaths. There is not good evidence they helped slow or stop transmission. Other natural environment factors such as herd immunity and seasonality are more likely to have helped significantly. (Countries that mitigated the disease successfully
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(lower prevalence) have a higher risk of a resurgence. Townships in South Africa where social distancing was difficult reached herd immunity
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(40% seroprevalence) even though confirmed cases reached only 2%. There has been no resurgence in the townships while nearby affluent suburbs did show a resurgance)
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Sweden did not lockdown and does not suffer from big "second wave" (Yet). We'll see if the strategy worked out!
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Focused protection with basic hygiene and social distancing is not uncontrolled. Or are you admitting the current measures are useless?
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Decades of herd immunity evidence...
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Not uncontrolled according to your current suggested measures.
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How does a near zero risk population translate into workforce issues or healthcare overburden? You think an entire city will be severely symptomatic at the same time?
Our healthcare systems are over-run every year, this is nothing new... There is a ton of newspaper article
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Our healthcare systems are over-run every year, this is nothing new... There is a ton of newspaper article
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Lockdowns do not change this, only a vaccine does which does not exist yet and might not produce the expected results. We also have good evidence for memory-cell protection against #SARSCoV2 https://twitter.com/gerdosi/status/1321181881895976960
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Again, neither would lockdowns..
There is no vaccine for other endemic coronaviruses, nor a universal flu vaccine.
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There is no vaccine for other endemic coronaviruses, nor a universal flu vaccine.
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Lockdowns are a proven unacceptable burden on the economy and mental health of the populace. You are in the realm of "maybe" with focused protection. Lockdowns failed, time for another strategy.
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Anyone infected, randomly, just like the flu and mononucleosis, at a very low proportion (%).
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We cannot save everyone. An acceptable number of deaths regardless of strategy must be expected. Lockdown strategy puts other people in risk... We think our strategy would lead to less "acceptable deaths"
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Lockdown everyone is any better?
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According to most of you, summer was a "young epidemic". So it works in summer, but not in winter?
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Lockdowns exacerbate for everyone instead.
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Nothing was prepared. New lockdowns will have the same consequences as the first.
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Herd immunity does that for free by itself...
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Low or zero covid is only possible during the appropriate seasonal environment as we could see during summer. We perfectly saw what happens during winter in South American countries. Even several months of lockdown in Peru couldnât prevent a big outbreak.
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These 3 named countries had very different strategies to tackle the novel coronavirus. New Zealand locked down the whole country while Japan focused on cluster-based track and trace WITHOUT a lockdown.
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We know that the coronavirus pandemic doesn't threaten our health care system Countries with overwhelmed hospitals already know this situation from different flu season, this situation wasnât extraordinary
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We cannot afford distractions that undermine an effective response; it is essential that we act urgently based on the evidence. -> sign the great Barrington declaration: https://gbdeclaration.org/
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End If you want to see more threads about COVID19 look at this thread: https://twitter.com/Rapataux/status/1324795502173585410?s=20
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