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BREAKING: LATEST MORTALITY DATA (released yesterday)
See below for my updated and extended charts, and a few new ones.
There's a clear trend towards improving annual mortality, and no evidence of any impact from Covid.
Please share: everybody needs to know this!
See below for my updated and extended charts, and a few new ones.
There's a clear trend towards improving annual mortality, and no evidence of any impact from Covid.
Please share: everybody needs to know this!
Here's the raw data.
I've updated my estimates for the first half of the year, including all late registrations.
I've been deliberately pessimistic, and my pessimistic esimates are what you will see in the charts below.
I've updated my estimates for the first half of the year, including all late registrations.
I've been deliberately pessimistic, and my pessimistic esimates are what you will see in the charts below.
First up, here are monthly registrations and the total from January to September.
April 2020 is the worst of all the months in my dataset.
And 2020 is 3.6% higher than an average year.
But the story is only beginning.
April 2020 is the worst of all the months in my dataset.
And 2020 is 3.6% higher than an average year.
But the story is only beginning.
Because the population is both growing and getting older.
Over the last five years alone, the number of people aged 85+ grew by a massive 25%.
A larger, more elderly population will tend to have higher mortality than a smaller, younger population.
We have to adjust for this.
Over the last five years alone, the number of people aged 85+ grew by a massive 25%.
A larger, more elderly population will tend to have higher mortality than a smaller, younger population.
We have to adjust for this.
Adjusting for population size is simple.
When I do this, April 2020 becomes only as bad as a "harsh winter flu" type of month.
And 2020 comes in slightly below average - safer than three of the previous five years.
Why isn't mainstream media telling this story?
When I do this, April 2020 becomes only as bad as a "harsh winter flu" type of month.
And 2020 comes in slightly below average - safer than three of the previous five years.
Why isn't mainstream media telling this story?
When I adjust for age and make a 2020 forecast, assuming that Q4 is normal, the results are even more amazing.
The numbers all point to 2020 being a normal year - in truth, probably the safest year ever!
And a perfect continuation of the long-term trend towards lower mortality:
The numbers all point to 2020 being a normal year - in truth, probably the safest year ever!
And a perfect continuation of the long-term trend towards lower mortality:
But if I remove all Covid deaths from the analysis, 2020 becomes an outlier year with exceptionally low mortality.
Which do you think is more likely: that 2020 is an outlier year with exceptionally low non-Covid deaths, or that the Covid label has been carelessly applied?
Which do you think is more likely: that 2020 is an outlier year with exceptionally low non-Covid deaths, or that the Covid label has been carelessly applied?
If you can help me find age-adjusted statistics for other countries, please get in touch.
I already know Wales is normal this year. England is 2% worse than 2015.
Sweden has had a normal year, adjusting only for population size.
What if we adjusted Sweden for age, too?
END
I already know Wales is normal this year. England is 2% worse than 2015.
Sweden has had a normal year, adjusting only for population size.
What if we adjusted Sweden for age, too?
END
