Doom & gloom within Arab regime circles about reports of a Biden win. They were hoping Trump would win.

Even if they don’t think Biden would actively be against them, they get how their detractors will have space & multiple advantages perhaps unprecedented in recent decades!

In 2016, it was a whole different world: Arab dictators and their circles were simply intoxicated with their love of the incoming Trump presidency. They saw historic opportunities, and they were right to a certain degree but not entirely.

These regimes will always have friends in DC but things, and they may think their puppets are doing a great job at placing op-eds or forming partnerships here & there; but there are parallel things happening both inside the US & when it comes to their detractors they can’t stop.

Yep. Turkey will turn this around, though. Money is that Biden will be very good for Ankara. The only country in the region that won’t do well with Biden is Saudi Arabia, the rest will be fine even if things aren’t ideal. https://twitter.com/akyolinenglish/status/1324748979087806468

As Trump lost the election, #Egypt released prisoners. This may be a small sign, but mark my words: these regimes will realize how badly they played their cards in the past few years in the US. Yes Trump helped them tremendously but they’ll face new troubles they can’t roll back! https://twitter.com/soltan/status/1325104190952235010

The best way to assess or forecast this would not to know whom Biden or Trump hates or likes, but to look at regional patterns (which regimes needs what, where the US is willing to entrench, and so on). So here are concrete examples:

Countries like the UAE *needed* a Trump type. They have big goals, but they need Trump to be all in with them, to amplify their small & limited capabilities, do their bidding & strongly push back against their rivals! Biden won’t be useful to them on the ground: they’ll OK on PR.

Countries like Turkey are the opposite example. What Turkey doesn’t want is a strong/proactive US president willing to stop it. Trump tried & failed. It marched on. A Biden presidency will be a golden opportunity for it, to do its own thing on the ground as rivals left vulnerable

Add to that: a Biden presidency will be somewhere between Obama & Trump in some ways. I don’t think they’ll pack up & leave in places like Syria, but they won’t be aggressive in demanding uniformity from allies. So Turkey has a huge advantage to assert itself & fill US vacuum..

Turkey’s rivals like Iran & Assad won’t be wholly relieved, but they won’t face the same incremental US pressure. Other rivals like the UAE & Saudi will continue to have allies in the US but not on the ground, especially against Turkey. Lots of vacuum for Turkey to fill.

So keep an eye for a continuing Turkey reach from Libya to Syria to Iraq, a policy that’ll flourish during Biden presidency. Also expect Turkey to be a key piece in the pushback against Russia. More Turkish presence in Syria & Iraq: https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/1325141935070339072

Right after Trump took office, I wrote about the Gulf excitement, despite Trump’s rhetoric & postures. These regimes knew the US priorities at home, but they saw alignment with their geopolitical world view. That was true: https://www.thenationalnews.com/opinion/how-the-gulf-could-reap-the-benefits-of-trump-1.34633

Now a whole different story

Hadn’t seen this before, it is worth bearing in mind too re Turkey comments above. https://twitter.com/dr_ulrichsen/status/1325502492164186115