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Okay, working with some more reliable sources now: Biden had 49,000 votes posted on the City of Milwaukee website as of 4 AM Wednesday ( https://web.archive.org/web/20201104040300/https://county.milwaukee.gov/EN/County-Clerk/Off-Nav/Election-Results/Election-Results-Fall-2020">https://web.archive.org/web/20201... ) and 194,000 votes as of 3 PM Wednesday. 102 wards added more than 500 votes, 16 added more than 1000. State margin 20k
And here are the Benford& #39;s law numbers for the leading digits of the early counts and the late counts. (shrug?)
Lmao, is this how city elections normally look? This is the percent of each ward& #39;s votes Biden won in the final counts
Close relationship between the percentages by ward posted early and late; little relationship between the totals posted early and the percentages posted late; many wards had counted very few ballots as of 4 AM but had very high %s as of 3 PM, which I guess we know.
And here& #39;s the Benford& #39;s chi-squared tests from the firstdigit.ado stata package, for the early and late totals.
So, here are four wards where early counts (as of 4 AM Wednesday morning) had fewer than 350 Biden votes but gained over 1300 Biden votes by afternoon. Ward 138, 177, 183, and 185. Maybe there& #39;s a simple story about why, apart from in person being lower than mail throughout.
To explain the (not great) variable names above: in Ward 138, Biden had 311 votes at 4 AM, 1773 votes at 3 PM, for a gain of 1462. in the same ward, Trump had 63 votes at 4 AM, 129 votes at 3 PM, for an increase of 66. That is, initial votes were 80% Biden, later votes 96% Biden.
