Texas Early Vote (EV) - Full Analysis of Early Vote

THREAD 1/N

Methodology
* Take all EV per county through 10/30
* Multiply 2016 T or C %

Estimated EV estimate
* Trump 51.7% to Biden 43.9%
* Trump is up 755K votes
* http://Targetearly.Targetsmart.com  = 51.3% to 38.9%

1/n

2/n

* 108.28% of the turnout vs. 2016
* Dark Red = Counties Trump win > 20%+ in 2016
* Pink = Trump win 0% < > 20%
* Blue = Clinton win any margin

Next we look at
* Sorted by most EV % over 2016, most raw 2020 EV total
* 2016 Clinton, Trump, Battleground Counties

2/n

3/n

If you sort the table by Biggest % increase over 2016 vote, the Top 38 counties shown are:

8 Clinton Counties
4 Battleground counties
26 Trump Counties

Trump leads in estimated EV 3,010,137 to 2,886,586. 124K lead

3/n

4/n

If you sort by Most Raw votes already in for Early Voting, the Top 38 counties shown are:

* Virtually every big city, it not all
* 8 Clinton Counties
* 8 Battleground counties
* 22 Trump Counties

Biden leads in estimated EV 3,868,370 to 3,850,854. 18K lead

4/n

5/n

2016 Battleground counties (T win < 20%) are running 114% of 2016 raw vote. Highest of the 3 groups

* 11 Total Counties
* 2016 Raw Vote - 1,618,667
* 2020 Raw Vote - 1,858,591
* I'm estimating T+195K 973,981 to 787,857
* Even if you wipe that out, Biden is 370K short

5/n

6/n

2016 Clinton Counties are running 110% of 2016 Raw vote. Middle of the 3 groups.

* 26 Total Counties
* 2016 Raw Vote - 3,993,105
* 2020 Raw Vote - 4,403,769
* I'm estimating B + 966K 2,589,208 to 1,623,434
* A lot of vote in already. Again 750K to make up.

6/n

7/end

2016 Trump counties running 103% of 2016.

* 216 counties +20% T
* 204 +30%
* 192 +40%
* 2016 Raw Vote - 3,317,690
* 2020 Raw Vote - 3,406,886
* I'm estimating T + 1.534M 2,404,557 to 870,329
* Lots of in-person voting likely left here

PREDICTION? Trump +11

7/end