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1. So what now?
Long time followers will know I've been pretty relentless banging the #COVID19 drum. Pandemics ruin lives and livelihoods. This virus should have been taken far more seriously at the outset, but we are where we are.
How do we get out of this crisis?
Long time followers will know I've been pretty relentless banging the #COVID19 drum. Pandemics ruin lives and livelihoods. This virus should have been taken far more seriously at the outset, but we are where we are.
How do we get out of this crisis?
2. This piece was published in April. As long as we stay in collective denial, we will not be able to deal with this virus.
We must accept two things about #SARSCoV2 :
a) It is a serious threat to health
b) It is a serious threat to the economy https://freemarketconservatives.org/getting-through-the-7-stages-of-pandemic/
We must accept two things about #SARSCoV2 :
a) It is a serious threat to health
b) It is a serious threat to the economy https://freemarketconservatives.org/getting-through-the-7-stages-of-pandemic/
3. Some would have us believe the virus isn't serious, that if we just go back to normal it will cease to be a problem. Our hospitals are being overwhelmed while we have some of the most stringent social control measures we've seen in modern history. https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/south-west-could-run-out-4657248
4. Unlike seasonal flu, #COVID19 spreads exponentially. Exponential spread can be fast (doubling every 3 days) or slow (doubling every 13 days) but it is still exponential. We do not see this with seasonal flu. Left unchecked, #Covid19UK will overwhelm the healthcare system.
5. The majority of deaths are happening in older age groups. But life expectancy doesn't work the way some people imagine. The average person who makes it to 80, can expect to see 90. If we don't protect all lives, we have to ask ourselves what kind of society we have become.
6. And death isn't the only measure of the toll of this virus. People are developing long-term complications. We still have no idea what this virus will mean in two years. Or five. https://twitter.com/DebbyBogaert/status/1322472263741001728?s=20
7. With each new infection, we increase the potential for harmful mutation. We have already seen at least two new, more infectious variants. A virus that spreads asymptomatically has no inherent need to attenuate. It's folly to assume it will become mild. https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1322442987754917888?s=20
8. I've also been warning that the natural seasonality of respiratory viruses would lead us to become compacent over summer. #SARSCoV2 has followed a pattern common to nearly all respiratory viruses in temperate regions.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/rmv.2153
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/rmv.2153
9. Temperature modulation of infection mechanism has been observed. We shouldn't assume we understand the microbiological characteristics of #SARS_CoV_2 until we've lived through a 12-month cycle.
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.11.291716v1.full.pdf
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.11.291716v1.full.pdf
10. There are some who point to Sweden as a route out of this crisis. They advocate the public health equivalent of light touch regulation. Sweden has failed on nearly every measure. It is not a model for success. https://time.com/5899432/sweden-coronovirus-disaster/
11. Even the man responsible for Sweden's disastrous approach rejects the so-called herd immunity policy proposed by many who use his failed pandemic response as a model. https://twitter.com/adamhamdy/status/1321831177767047169?s=20
12. Instead of pointing to a convenient failure, we should look at countries that have actually succeeded. Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, New Zealand, Australia and many others. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/29/asia/taiwan-covid-19-intl-hnk/index.html
13. We know what works, but it takes inspirational leadership and competent implementation to deliver results. Inspirational leadership to bring the whole community with you. Competent implementation to ensure we never accept second best. https://twitter.com/adamhamdy/status/1311580939668119552?s=20
14. The #JohnSnowMemorandum tries to make it clear that lockdown is failure. Repeated lockdowns are not an effective strategy for managing a pandemic. We must implement sustainable measures. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32153-X/fulltext
15. As part of this, politicians and media need to recognise the corrosive harm done by pseudoscience and speculation. Opinion is not the same as evidenced science. There is no need to balance viewpoints when one side is spouting dangerous nonsense.
16. Mainstream media would not waste time platforming pro-smoking advocates, climate deniers or flat Earthers. Proponents of the so-called herd immunity policy fall into the same category. They have provided no evidence for their theories.
17. And their proposed policy has been dismissed by the @WHO & almost all leading public health bodies as inhumane, harmful nonsense. It is unsubstantiated spitballing that does not deserve serious consideration.
18. One of the lessons we can learn from other countries is the importance of a common objective and a whole community response. We're all in this together. We must work as a team to manage the public health challenge and economic impact of this pandemic and help each other.
19. When the official lockdown announcement is finally made, I will be looking closely at the issue of education. If there are no new measures put in place, it will be an indication the government isn't serious about getting the virus under contol. https://twitter.com/adamhamdy/status/1322437913515315200?s=20
20. @DrZoeHyde has done extensive work on the issue of children and schools. If we're serious about bringing cases down to a level that allows for effective test, trace and isolate, we need to address educational settings. https://twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/1322434256367349760?s=20
21. A recent large study in Bavaria evidences what I've suspected for a while: some people have been underestimating the role of children in transmission. Schools need to be made safe. https://twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/1322198476923416576?s=20
22. I understand the anger felt by many in the hospitality industry who went to great cost and effort to make their businesses safe, only to have their efforts undermined by a disastrous schools and university policy. If one part of our pandemic response fails, it all fails.
23. I also understand the frustration felt by people facing another lockdown. This one is going to be harder, so we have to make it count. We need to look at other countries and learn from them. Let's stop arguing about whether this pandemic is real and start doing what works.
