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The latest ONS infections model has more in common with mine than its previous iterations. I estimate 61751 daily infections in the UK on 14 Oct (ONS England: 45779), rising to about 70,000 a week later.
R-number appears to have fallen, but is still >1.
[Mini-Thread] #Covid19UK
![The latest ONS infections model has more in common with mine than its previous iterations. I estimate 61751 daily infections in the UK on 14 Oct (ONS England: 45779), rising to about 70,000 a week later.R-number appears to have fallen, but is still >1.[Mini-Thread] #Covid19UK](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ElpliY1WMAE5ypa.png "The latest ONS infections model has more in common with mine than its previous iterations. I estimate 61751 daily infections in the UK on 14 Oct (ONS England: 45779), rising to about 70,000 a week later.R-number appears to have fallen, but is still >1.[Mini-Thread] #Covid19UK")
![The latest ONS infections model has more in common with mine than its previous iterations. I estimate 61751 daily infections in the UK on 14 Oct (ONS England: 45779), rising to about 70,000 a week later.R-number appears to have fallen, but is still >1.[Mini-Thread] #Covid19UK](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ElplxfCX0AABUR8.png "The latest ONS infections model has more in common with mine than its previous iterations. I estimate 61751 daily infections in the UK on 14 Oct (ONS England: 45779), rising to about 70,000 a week later.R-number appears to have fallen, but is still >1.[Mini-Thread] #Covid19UK")
![The latest ONS infections model has more in common with mine than its previous iterations. I estimate 61751 daily infections in the UK on 14 Oct (ONS England: 45779), rising to about 70,000 a week later.R-number appears to have fallen, but is still >1.[Mini-Thread] #Covid19UK](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ElpmA24XYAEFj1-.png "The latest ONS infections model has more in common with mine than its previous iterations. I estimate 61751 daily infections in the UK on 14 Oct (ONS England: 45779), rising to about 70,000 a week later.R-number appears to have fallen, but is still >1.[Mini-Thread] #Covid19UK")
R-number appears to have fallen, but is still >1.
[Mini-Thread] #Covid19UK
Daily infections in the middle of October represented about 50% of the peak in March.
I estimate that 7 million total UK infections and a 10% attack rate were reached about 2 weeks ago. The UK IFR is falling and may end up below 0.8%.
I estimate that 7 million total UK infections and a 10% attack rate were reached about 2 weeks ago. The UK IFR is falling and may end up below 0.8%.
My instinct is that the March peak was bigger and slightly earlier than my model suggests, but the paucity of data for the early part of the pandemic makes it very hard to model historical infections accurately.
Other models are available.
ONS Infection Survey: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/30october2020
ICL REACT: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/research-and-impact/groups/react-study/real-time-assessment-of-community-transmission-findings/
Zoe Symptomatic Cases: https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
MRC-BSU-Cambridge Nowcast: https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/nowcasting-and-forecasting-29th-october-2020/
/End of thread
ONS Infection Survey: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/30october2020
ICL REACT: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/research-and-impact/groups/react-study/real-time-assessment-of-community-transmission-findings/
Zoe Symptomatic Cases: https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
MRC-BSU-Cambridge Nowcast: https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/nowcasting-and-forecasting-29th-october-2020/
/End of thread
