A new national lockdown would have devastating effects on the economy, businesses, jobs, isolation, loneliness, mental health.

Even if infections were increasing rapidly, it would not be a proportionate response. But ...

... the evidence suggests that infections are not actually increasing rapidly.

Positive tests increasing at about 1% per day & no longer increasing at all in North West & North East.

In Liverpool, positive tests coming down for some time (including in older age groups).

Daily increase in Zoe App estimate of total infected is slowing & now under 2% for most recent few days.

ONS estimates a little higher at 4% but that's only up 23rd Oct when increase in positive tests & Zoe data were also a bit higher.

Triage data going down quite steadily.

This is consistent with Scotland & NI where growth in infection rates also seems to have slowed & (for NI) possibly reversed.

Who knows what will happen to infection rates in the future, but on current data, there is simply no justification for a national lockdown next week.