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The predictable arrival of a national lockdown throws the governments job/income support schemes into a catastrophic mess. The number of people and jobs slipping through the cracks has risen from a trickle to a flood - the government is failing. A thread based on @NEF research /1
The main job support scheme was already imperfect, even after its upgrade last week. @NEF estimated 450,000 at-risk jobs aren't protected by it. Given the bleak national picture most are now likely to face redundancy /2 https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/oct/23/left-in-lurch-sunak-under-fire-for-lack-of-self-employed-support
Worker incomes are falling to intolerable levels. The 2 million or so already fully furloughed will tomoro see their monthly take-home drop at least £87 (avg.). Unless a new scheme is announced, the full lockdown means their monthly take-home will drop another £87 days later /3
As it stands workers affected by the full lockdown will be eligible for 67% of wages on the Tier 3 Job Support Scheme. It is true that the very lowest paid will get a little top up from Universal Credit. Tens of thousands won't. /4 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/54633147
Rent and bill payments have not been reduced at all. How are low and lower-middle income households using the furlough scheme going to pay? It just doesn't stack up. Another last minute Treasury change is needed. It's either that or mass poverty /5
All of the events now unfolding were predictable. How have we ended up here? Throughout this crisis @NEF has consistently called for a minimum income guarantee. This was the only way to properly protect national wellbeing /ends https://neweconomics.org/2020/03/building-a-minimum-income-protection
