The assumption that Russia seeks a pretext to intervene is fundamentally flawed - Russia has evaded Armenia's calls for the CSTO's involvement. If Moscow wanted to intervene, it could have a month ago - Russia has both multilateral and bilateral treaty obligations with Armenia.
It is unlikely that Russia will be willing to be entrenched in the conflict militarily - maybe plausible deniability with limited involvement. At most mirotvoschestvo. Intervention by consent like Syria seems like a stretch.
One thing is for sure, Russia is not "happy" - Russia has the most to lose out of all the international actors involved in the conflict.
No one should applaud the escalation of this conflict. Yesterday in Geneva, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to stop targeting civilian areas and non-military objects. US leadership is needed to pressure both sides to uphold commitments and to reach a diplomatic solution.
Unfortunately, many commentators in the US seem more preoccupied with fanning the flames of war and providing misguided analysis of the situation. It is disillusioning as this conflict has been for many.
You can follow @NicoleGrajewski.
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