Can we talk about the Bloomberg "freakout article"?

First, I'll say that a little freaking out is good. This election is far from over. The winner will be decided based on the actions of tens of millions of voters across the country over the next 4 days. But we should also be clear-eyed about the landscape.

First, yes, the vote share of black and latino voters in battleground states is currently slightly behind where they were at this point in time in '16. 1.1 points among Black voters and 0.3 behind for Latino voters.

Should Democrats be panicking about that? You can decide, but consider two factors:

1) African American turnout is 0.4 pts ahead of their final 2016 vote share. Latino turnout is 1.4 pts ahead of their final vote share.

I just noticed that I started two consecutive tweets with the word "first". It's been a long week. Anyhow, carrying on...

2) The reason the African American and Latino vote shares are slightly down from this same point in time in '16 is more complicated. But among the various reasons is not that GOP turnout is out-surging. In fact, that biggest surge is white college educated voters. +4.7% from '16.

Meanwhile non-college white vote share is down 4.4 pts. So what we're seeing is massive increases in black and latino turnout, but not quite as massive as the increases among white college educated and Asian voters.

Anyhow, I could go on, and I will likely dig into more state level data this weekend, but I wanted to share my high level thoughts quickly tonight since I know the article is making the rounds. So don't freak out. Vote.

One more note I'll add, a thought that struck me as this article kept me up last night - the core notion of the article seems to be that black and brown voters aren't doing enough to save us. Even if it were true that their turnout was lagging (it's not) that's a corrosive view.