Alright friendos it's fucking update time!

In my opinion using what analysis I have..

Analytical probability of a potential civil war ii in the US has risen to 30% to 49% in certain conditions, low end is down to 15 - 24% (don't ask) in high conditions 35 - 51% high. A thread.

The reason for this update is not to give time for prep, but just due to general pre election moods, analysis of social media, common reach of the idea, common testing, my patent pending taleb like "Damon test" and background noise. Lets dive into this.

First, pre election mood, is just general analysis. People are slightly more combative on opposite ends of the political spectrums then they have been since August, not as bad as the rest of the year. This can be proofed thru generalized upload search and polls.

Granted the above could be due to people being badgered about if they are going to vote and pre election build up. So we can kinda lessen the importance of the above.

Next up: is common reach. This gets into the Damon test later. When civil war is discussed on mainstream outlets and common outlets such as Joe Rogan, Tim Pool, and other you tubers in addition to news paper outlets, it is a HUGE indicator of potential.

"ThE NeWs SaID it MiGHt HapPEn!" is an element that is bad in these scenarios. Build up like this is not good. Past civil wars are not black swans. They are fucking cartoon powder kegs. Some asshole lights a fuse and we have to watch or try to put it out.

Problem is that this looks media driven. Wars sell. Problem is media probably thinks civil war would not only sell but would be beneficial. It probably won't be. If media drives this conflict, I don't expect them to stop it.

Public acknowledgment of red team gaming by partisan elements and NOBODY SAYING SHIT ABOUT IT-- IS NOT A GOOD FUCKING SIGN. YES I SAID THIS LAST TIME, BUT IT'S ONLY GOTTEN WORSE BECAUSE OF EXPOSURE AND LACK OF PUSHBACK.

The next test is what I like to call the "Damon test".
My friend Damon is as far from conspiracy, intelligence web, boogaboi whatever crowd as possible. He is a normie. Rather he is an ex con politically atheistic construction worker from Saint Louis.

Everyone has a Damon. That one dude who is intentionally not involved and doing their own thing. He doesn't vote because he can't. He approached me. He thought what I thought about a possible Civil War. Not I asking him.

Let me ask you, dearest follower, frequent retweeter, Twitter mutual, Rando #47 etc, has someone you consider a normie outside of political sphere asked you about this? Has someone you considered a layman in the past month asked about "hey you think a civil war can happen? I do.'

Granted that's not exact wording. But if normies think it can happen that upgrades the possibility. By a lot. A whole lot. Boogieboys/boogahadien were a fringe idea 2 years ago. Now it's not an uncommon idea (not saying there are more, I am saying more reach.)

I am not willing to say it's a MOTHERFUCKING COINTOSS until conditions post election. If you thought "the threat of civil war decreases after election" you are mistaken. More thread other stuff tonight.