Thread by @chriskromm, My vote for most under-reported 2020 election story: STATE LEGISLATURES, especially in [...]

My vote for most under-reported 2020 election story: STATE LEGISLATURES, especially in the South. States are where policy moves, bases are mobilized, and, thanks to redistricting, Congressional control is shaped. Here’s what to watch in the South in 2020:

1/x

Today, Republicans control 24 of 26 legislative chambers in the South. Two years ago, there were 0 Democratic-controlled chambers; Virginia Democrats changed that in 2019 when they won control of the VA Senate and House, forming a state trifecta.

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The GOP’s dominance of Southern legislatures began in 2010. Before that, Dems controlled senate and house chambers in Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, and West Virginia; Dems split control with the GOP in Kentucky and Virginia.

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Then came 2010: Dems ignored the states, post-2008 reaction took off, and Republicans unleashed record spending — thanks in part to Citizens United — to win state chambers in time for redistricting. The GOP redrew maps and changed voting laws to lock in power for a decade.

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The GOP strategy was resoundingly effective. By 2014, there was only one Southern chamber remaining with a Democratic majority: the Kentucky House of Representatives, which Republicans won in 2016. @facingsouth

https://bit.ly/35Mq5KZ

5/x

Republicans tighten grip in Southern state legislatures

After the 2014 mid-term elections, Democrats have a majority in just one state legislative chamber in 13 Southern states: the Kentucky House.

https://bit.ly/35Mq5KZ

Democrats have been slowly chipping away at the GOP’s Southern legislative dominance. In 2017-2018, Dems saw a net gain of +67 legislative seats across the South. @facingsouth

https://bit.ly/35T8ila

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Democrats regain ground in Southern legislatures

When Southern legislatures gavel into session in 2019, Republicans will still enjoy majority control in all of the South's upper and lower chambers. But for Southern Republicans, there is cause for...

https://bit.ly/35T8ila

Dems now hope that in 2020, with record turnout and unprecedented amounts of Dem money flowing into Southern states for federal races, they can win a chamber or two in time for post-2020 redistricting, and make incremental gains in others.

7/x

By sheer numbers, here are the Southern legislatures where Republicans have the smallest majorities:

FL & WV SEN: R+6
TX SEN: R+7
NC & SC SEN: R+8
NC HOUSE: R+10

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But the size of the partisan split isn't the whole story. @CookPolitical ranks the 2020 Southern chambers in play as follows:

TOSS UP: NC Sen

LEAN R: FL Sen, GA Hse & Sen, NC Hse, TX Hse

LIKELY R: FL Hse, TX Sen, WV Sen

ALL OTHERS: Solid R

https://bit.ly/35SenhV

9/x

October Overview: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races

October Overview: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races October 21, 2020 | Louis Jacobson Since July 22, when we last handicapped the battle to control the nation's state legislatures, the...

https://bit.ly/35SenhV

The state leg ratings show why Dem investments in NC, for example, have a major multiplier effect: Level of mobilization for @JoeBiden and U.S. Sen will be key factor in #NCGA races. State Dems are making the same case in FL, GA and TX. 10/x

For more on Southern state races in 2020 and other key election and voting issues in the South, make sure to follow us at @facingsouth

https://bit.ly/3mGfh8J

Want to support our election reporting and analysis? Here you go: https://bit.ly/34ynyEU

11/11

Defend Democracy in the South

https://bit.ly/3mGfh8J

You can follow @chriskromm.

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