My vote for most under-reported 2020 election story: STATE LEGISLATURES, especially in the South. States are where policy moves, bases are mobilized, and, thanks to redistricting, Congressional control is shaped. Here’s what to watch in the South in 2020:
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Today, Republicans control 24 of 26 legislative chambers in the South. Two years ago, there were 0 Democratic-controlled chambers; Virginia Democrats changed that in 2019 when they won control of the VA Senate and House, forming a state trifecta.
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The GOP’s dominance of Southern legislatures began in 2010. Before that, Dems controlled senate and house chambers in Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, and West Virginia; Dems split control with the GOP in Kentucky and Virginia.
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Then came 2010: Dems ignored the states, post-2008 reaction took off, and Republicans unleashed record spending — thanks in part to Citizens United — to win state chambers in time for redistricting. The GOP redrew maps and changed voting laws to lock in power for a decade.
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The GOP strategy was resoundingly effective. By 2014, there was only one Southern chamber remaining with a Democratic majority: the Kentucky House of Representatives, which Republicans won in 2016. @facingsouth
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Democrats have been slowly chipping away at the GOP’s Southern legislative dominance. In 2017-2018, Dems saw a net gain of +67 legislative seats across the South. @facingsouth
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Dems now hope that in 2020, with record turnout and unprecedented amounts of Dem money flowing into Southern states for federal races, they can win a chamber or two in time for post-2020 redistricting, and make incremental gains in others.
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By sheer numbers, here are the Southern legislatures where Republicans have the smallest majorities:
FL & WV SEN: R+6
TX SEN: R+7
NC & SC SEN: R+8
NC HOUSE: R+10
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FL & WV SEN: R+6
TX SEN: R+7
NC & SC SEN: R+8
NC HOUSE: R+10
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But the size of the partisan split isn& #39;t the whole story. @CookPolitical ranks the 2020 Southern chambers in play as follows:
TOSS UP: NC Sen
LEAN R: FL Sen, GA Hse & Sen, NC Hse, TX Hse
LIKELY R: FL Hse, TX Sen, WV Sen
ALL OTHERS: Solid R
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TOSS UP: NC Sen
LEAN R: FL Sen, GA Hse & Sen, NC Hse, TX Hse
LIKELY R: FL Hse, TX Sen, WV Sen
ALL OTHERS: Solid R
https://bit.ly/35SenhV
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The state leg ratings show why Dem investments in NC, for example, have a major multiplier effect: Level of mobilization for @JoeBiden and U.S. Sen will be key factor in #NCGA races. State Dems are making the same case in FL, GA and TX. 10/x
For more on Southern state races in 2020 and other key election and voting issues in the South, make sure to follow us at @facingsouth
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