PIE CHARTS, OUTBREAKS & FRUSTRATION: A THREAD

Yesterday, the province presented data about sources of COVID-19 outbreaks in Ottawa. That data, notably the pie charts, caused some confusion and we understand your frustrations.

Perhaps we can clear things up a smidgen? (1/11)

In a pandemic, it's even more vital that you get clear, concise info to help you understand the “why” behind the guidance that is being provided. Many of you are currently frustrated & know that we understand. Sometimes the data can be overwhelming, and we'd like to help. (2/11)

Important note: outbreaks are part of the picture, but not all. Of our nearly 7000 lab-confirmed cases of COVID to date (the real number is much higher as not everyone gets tested), just over 2150 came from confirmed outbreaks (a little over 30%).

But what are outbreaks? (3/11)

An outbreak is declared when our investigation work identifies links between cases within a specific setting, and each setting has different criteria. Hospitals require 2 cases to declare an outbreak. For LTC homes, due to the higher risk to the residents, only 1 case is (4/11)

needed to declare an outbreak. Schools/childcare require 2 cases & class lists help our contact tracing work making it easier to identify cases/transmission. Community outbreaks (bars/restos, gyms, etc.) require 2 cases & the data usually relies on clients recalling their (5/11)

exposure times & contacts. Basically, the parameters for declaring outbreaks are different & some are easier to define and identify.

So now, back to yesterday's provincial data: it showed that 2% of outbreaks came from resto/bars & 5% from gyms. Yes, a relatively low %. (6/11)

Now consider this: of cases among 20-49 yr-olds (non-healthcare workers & no household contact), 92% of them did NOT come from an outbreak. Ninety-two percent.

Just because an outbreak was not declared in a specific setting does not mean transmission did not occur there. (7/11)

The simple fact is: looking at outbreaks alone is not an accurate way to portray what we know about the situation in our community.

Here's what we do know: over the past few weeks, newly reported cases per day are stabilizing, as are school outbreaks & hospitalizations. (8/11)

We've seen the first evidence of decrease in the rise of cases of 20-29 yr-olds (very encouraging!). We're seeing what we've seen before: our actions matter.

This month was hard, but we're almost there. If we can keep this up, November is lining up to be a much better (9/11)

month for our community. Very soon, when many businesses start reopening/resuming operations, it's up to all of us to continue doing the right things to limit the spread & importantly, to increasingly support our local businesses...they need our patronage more than ever. (10/11)

So please #SupportLocal & do so kindly & #COVIDwisely.

It's been a year, Ottawa. We've learned a lot, and we're learning more each day. We'll keep doing our best to get our community through this.

We can't hold your hands, but please wash them anyway.

-OPH out. (11/11)