Despite robust voting turnout in TX, conventional wisdom suggests Biden/Harris coming up short. After perusing the numbers, I'd bet otherwise based on an emerging coalition of younger, diverse, women, urban and suburban voters in the Lone Star State. A long thread follows ...

In 2016, roughly 9M voted in TX, and Hillary Clinton lost by about 807k votes. In the current early voting period in TX, 2M new voters have already cast ballots. We can conservatively estimate that 11M+ will vote in TX in 2020.

The 2M new voters in TX include 430k new LatinX voters and 140k new Afr-Am voters from which Dems could bank 235k net votes. If Dems could carry 1.43M other new voters, including scores of 18-29 yo and voters new to the state, by 60/40, they would bank another 285k net votes.

With 2016 GOP vote lead possibly cut down to ~290k, the Dems would need to flip ~145k voters who voted for Trump in 2016. 10% of ~800k white college-degreed women, 5% of ~770k white college men and 3% of ~1.1M white non-college women voting for Trump in TX in 2016 would do it.

You'll hear on Twitter that Dems can't win TX in 2020 because red suburban/rural county turnout is up just as much as blue urban/suburban county turnout. This is false for 2 reasons: (1) turnout in blue counties is outpacing red counties and (2) blue counties are more populous.

You might also hear from pundits that Biden is polling 6-7 pts ahead of Hillary nationally. Since Hillary lost TX by 9 pts in 2016, Biden won't quite be able to close the gap in 2020. This overlooks Biden doing much better with suburban white voters, an important group in TX.

A 6-7 polling bump for Biden nationwide is likely magnified in the suburbs. This is key in TX where roughly 3 out 4 TX voters live in one of the state's 5 largest metro areas, and nearly 2 in 5 voters lives in a suburban county.

An upsurge in TX turnout in its largest metro counties is a double win for Biden. It simultaneously improves the Dem voter margin by expanding the Dem margin in blue counties while increasing the share of the blue counties in the statewide vote count.

To turn TX blue, Biden needs the state's 10 largest counties (by turnout) to command ~60% share of statewide vote count and deliver him a vote margin of ~20%. He also needs to approach Beto's improved margins in TX counties 11-30.

To hit the magic 20% Dem margins in TX top 10 counties, Biden needs to improve 2016 Dem performance in the 9 largest DFW, Houston, San Antonio and Austin counties by 10-15 pts apiece with the biggest jump occurring in high turnout Austin and metro Dallas counties.

By doing so, Biden could overcome another nagging doubt about his TX campaign, namely weakness in outreach to the LatinX community in south and west Texas. Strong results in the Texas Triangle would overcome regression in El Paso, RGV and Latinx frontier counties.