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1. The problem facing Europe & the US isn't a scientific one. Scientists have been clear for months: public health and economic & social wellbeing are best served by policies that supress the virus. The #JohnSnowMemo cites evidence that makes this clear.
http://www.johnsnowmemo.com
http://www.johnsnowmemo.com
2. Some media commentators seek to present the issue of how to respond to the virus in simplistic terms: Lockdown vs Herd Immunity. This a mischaracterisation. The countries that have tackled #COVID-19 best have used a range of public health measures. https://twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/1320031746625204224?s=20
3. Almost every scientist acknowledges lockdown equals failure. It is a sign governments have failed to implement the measures needed to allow life to be lived more or less as normal, without risking exponential growth in transmission.
4. There is an active misinformation campaign that is being aided and abetted by certain sections of the media and some politicians. The campaign would have us believe that if we open up and shield the vulnerable, all will be well. This approach has been derided as inhumane...
5. ...by the WHO, and ridiculous by Dr Fauci for many reasons. It is based on faulty logic, and the proponents of this approach have submitted no evidence that it can be achieved nor any practical examples of how they would do so. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/12/who-chief-says-herd-immunity-approach-to-pandemic-unethical
6. In contrast, we can point to many real world examples of countries that have successful managed to control the virus. We can be very specific about how they have done so. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/29/asia/taiwan-covid-19-intl-hnk/index.html
7. We can point to real world evidence of what happens when the virus spreads within the community. We’re currently seeing the effects in Europe and the US. Hospitals are filling up, ICUs are running out of capacity and people are dying. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/30/europe/eu-hospital-transfer-coronavirus-intl/index.html
8. Other countries haven’t used magic to control the virus. They have used a combination of public health measures. They had leaders who took the problem seriously and understood the importance of communicating with their people to bring the whole community with them.
9. I’ve been shocked at the willingness of people in western countries to accept tens of thousands of cases per day, when in much of Asia, TEN cases per day would be regarded with serious concern. These European cases will result in hundreds of deaths per day in a few weeks.
10. In the UK in particular, I’m surprised the opposition hasn’t been more vocal in challenging the government’s pandemic response. There are plenty of scientists and clinical experts who would be willing to help shape alternative policies that actually work.
11. Dr Fauci and many others believe this crisis will not be resolved until the end of 2021. If they’re right, we can’t treat this as a short term emergency. We need measures that are sustainable. I don’t believe cycling through lockdowns is sustainable. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/28/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html
12. We need policies for the medium to long term, and we should look at other countries that have done well. We need a shift in public attitudes and instead of tolerating misinformation and pseudoscience, we must learn to distinguish between well-evidenced science and nonsense.
13. We must accept that if we want our lives back we need to come together and work hard. The government is no longer listening to scientists, its policies have failed us. Those who said there would be no second wave or that the pandemic had ended in June should be silent.
14. Let the people who’ve understood this pandemic from the outset help shape policy. Many of them wrote or signed the John Snow Memo, or sit on Independent SAGE. If @Keir_Starmer is serious about making life better for the people of Britain, pick up the phone.
15. Start pressing the government with alternatives. Push them to raise their game, because based on our current trajectory, tens of thousands of people are going to die prematurely this winter. Many more will suffer debilitating illness and potential long-term complications.
16. And we will all endure curtailment of our freedom, and suffer economic great harm as a nation. The science is clear. What isn’t clear is whether our politicians have the courage and imagination to manage this pandemic and make life better for us all.
