Thread by @PatrickRuffini, The pre-election CCES is out, the largest and highest quality of the [...]

Patrick Ruffini

PatrickRuffini

The pre-election CCES is out, the largest and highest quality of the online samples we'll see with 51K LVs.

Biden 51
Trump 43

White Non-College: Trump 57, Biden 38
White College: Biden 58, Trump 36
Black: Biden 86, Trump 9
Hispanic: Biden 59, Trump 35

https://bfschaffner.shinyapps.io/CES2020/

Women: Biden 55, Trump 39
Men: Trump 48, Biden 47

White College Women: Biden 65, Trump 30
White College Men: Biden 53, Trump 41

White Non-College Women: Trump 54, Biden 40
White Non-College Men: Trump 60, Biden 35

You have to work very hard to find vote switchers among Trump/Clinton '16 voters. 2% of Clinton voters and 6% of Trump voters are switching.

The real movement is with third party voters & those who didn't vote.

Swing to and from Trump from 2016 Post-Election CCES

White Non-College: Trump +27 to Trump +19 (-8)
White College: Clinton +3 to Biden +22 (-19) (!!!)

Black: Clinton +80 to Biden +77 (+3)
Hispanic: Clinton +35 to Biden +24 (+11) (!!!)

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