sweden and Illinois have similar population and lived densities. they pursued very different policies. Il has locked down hard and has had mask mandates. sweden has not.

yet sweden has not only out-performed, but is currently seeing deaths near 0 and stable vs the rise in IL.

current 7 day MA for deaths per million is 3.2 and rising in IL and 0.25 per million and stable in sweden.

IL has 13 times the death rate AND the wrong trend.

since i last did this analysis (9/18) sweden has had 95 deaths, IL 1242.

that's 6 per mm vs 104.

this is because lockdowns/masks do not work.

they probably make it worse. lockdowns certainly do.

early, hard lockdown actually increases ultimate herd immunity threshold.

HIT is path dependent. it's an emergent property of percolation. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1315669937269202944?s=20

and you can see how little opening up affected illinois when you look at deaths vs google mobility data.

restaurants opened for inside service in late june.

i chose 9/18 to measure change because that happens to be the last time i did this analysis.

you can see that here: https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1306948908850049031?s=20

lockdowns have been an expensive disaster for IL.

if they had at least bought something, one might speak of cost/benefit. but it's clear they did not.

this price tag came from inflicting MORE harm from covid and piling deaths from suicide, OD, and lack of medical care on top.

and now, pritzger wants to do it again?

how can anyone with remote familiarity with the data think this is a good idea.

this is like burning your house down, getting 20% done with the rebuild, then burning it down again.

addemnum:

folks seem to be trying to claim "oh, that's just socialized medicine."

it does not seem to be working in the high lockdown EU countries.