With the #qldpol campaign coming to an end, I thought I would summarise some of the comments I've been making to journalists, and anyone who will listen really about what is going on in Queensland. So here is a short thread....

My starting point is QLD is the most interesting, most diverse & most complex state in the Commonwealth (I'm biased). What grates me about coverage of QLD is the fossilized view outside the state, that we are stuck in some extension of the Joh era, that is complete bullshit..

Many commentators talk about de-centralisation, but they usually only speak about this in terms of the regions v Brisbane, but this misses the point. The interests of the regions often contradict one another eg Nth Qld & Far North QLD, are NOT the same...

For parties, the challenges are immense unless you are targeting specific seats like Greens or KAP. For 1, there are 6 or 7 distinct media markets you need to penetrate, yes the evil empire reigns supreme with one state paper, but you still need to penetrate local media markets..

The declining vote and ID with the major parties also presents immense challenges in a state this diverse. Hence, it is no surprise that we are seeing political entrepreneurs exploit opportunities emerging across the state...

The most successful of these entrepreneurs split the electoral coalitions of the major parties and are able to peel votes away from both. But the federal factor is significant here too and affects this, opening up additional opportunities to exploit, like, um Adani...

Sidenote on Adani, one Labor MP said to me last year that Adani was a bit like the game pass the parcel, but instead of getting the parcel the last person had to make a decision about what to do and then they were fucked electorally. And I think that sums things up pretty well...

Anyway, my view is that unless we see a significant re-alignment & something change, minority government is going to be increasingly likely given the macro level factors. The majors are swimming against the tide at present, doesn’t mean that won’t change, but the trend is clear

Also, see how I called it minority government, not a hung parliament? There is nothing wrong with minority government, get used to it, much of the democratic world have and realise it is perfectly fine. This is for the media as much as anyone..

Sidenote 2: my read of the minority gov literature is minor parties usually ‘lose’ in the medium-term when they enter these agreements, so be careful what you wish for in terms of KAP and Greens. Literature says majors often come out unaffected and minor party vote declines so…

This election is probably an outlier, and, if anything favours the major parties and incumbents. But things, to my eye at least, are moving towards more fluidity, more volatility and less of the majoritarian type outcomes people assume are likely to occur in QLD.

Anyhoo, these are the seats I’m most interested in: Oodgeroo; Sth Brisbane, Mansfield, Aspley, McConnell, Pumicestone, Currumbin, Burleigh, Gaven, Townsville, Thuringowa, Mundingburra, Mirani, Whitsunday. No shocks, mainly marginals and those discussed elsewhere.