That makes Pennsylvania the most likely tipping-point state. Hence the big Trump & Biden presence & the Trump campaign& #39;s persistent attempts to suppress mail-in voting there.

@jblumgart in Philadelphia delves into what will decide how the state votes:

https://www.newstatesman.com/2020/10/us-election-swing-states-will-donald-trump-hold-pennsylvania">https://www.newstatesman.com/2020/10/u...
Pennsylvania (unlike, say, Florida) only starts counting mail-in votes on election day. The count could take several days & early results will be disproportionately favourable to Trump, who has sought to delegitimise results reported after election night. https://www.newstatesman.com/2020/10/us-election-swing-states-will-donald-trump-hold-pennsylvania">https://www.newstatesman.com/2020/10/u...
And if Biden loses one of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania? Here are next most probable states to flip, according to our @NewStatesman model:

4. Florida 67% (29 electoral college votes)
5. Arizona 66% (11)
6. North Carolina 64% (15)
7. Georgia 54% (16) https://www.newstatesman.com/international/2020/10/us-2020-presidential-election-forecast-model-will-donald-trump-or-joe-biden">https://www.newstatesman.com/internati...
Those 4 states should give the first big clues on election night (though early numbers based on mail-in ballots may disproportionately favour Biden). If Biden wins Florida it& #39;s very probably all over for Trump.

Read @emilyctamkin on Florida: https://www.newstatesman.com/world/north-america/2020/08/us-election-swing-states-florida-factor">https://www.newstatesman.com/world/nor...
You can follow @JeremyCliffe.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: