Read on Twitter
To win #election2020 
Biden needs the 232 electoral college votes of Clinton's '16 base plus 38.
According to our @NewStatesman model the states Biden is most likely to flip are:
1. Michigan 79% (16 votes)
2. Wisconsin 77% (10)
3. Pennsylvania 76% (20)
https://www.newstatesman.com/international/2020/10/us-2020-presidential-election-forecast-model-will-donald-trump-or-joe-biden
Biden needs the 232 electoral college votes of Clinton's '16 base plus 38.According to our @NewStatesman model the states Biden is most likely to flip are:
1. Michigan 79% (16 votes)
2. Wisconsin 77% (10)
3. Pennsylvania 76% (20)
https://www.newstatesman.com/international/2020/10/us-2020-presidential-election-forecast-model-will-donald-trump-or-joe-biden
That makes Pennsylvania the most likely tipping-point state. Hence the big Trump & Biden presence & the Trump campaign's persistent attempts to suppress mail-in voting there.
@jblumgart in Philadelphia delves into what will decide how the state votes:
https://www.newstatesman.com/2020/10/us-election-swing-states-will-donald-trump-hold-pennsylvania
@jblumgart in Philadelphia delves into what will decide how the state votes:
https://www.newstatesman.com/2020/10/us-election-swing-states-will-donald-trump-hold-pennsylvania
Pennsylvania (unlike, say, Florida) only starts counting mail-in votes on election day. The count could take several days & early results will be disproportionately favourable to Trump, who has sought to delegitimise results reported after election night. https://www.newstatesman.com/2020/10/us-election-swing-states-will-donald-trump-hold-pennsylvania
And if Biden loses one of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania? Here are next most probable states to flip, according to our @NewStatesman model:
4. Florida 67% (29 electoral college votes)
5. Arizona 66% (11)
6. North Carolina 64% (15)
7. Georgia 54% (16) https://www.newstatesman.com/international/2020/10/us-2020-presidential-election-forecast-model-will-donald-trump-or-joe-biden
4. Florida 67% (29 electoral college votes)
5. Arizona 66% (11)
6. North Carolina 64% (15)
7. Georgia 54% (16) https://www.newstatesman.com/international/2020/10/us-2020-presidential-election-forecast-model-will-donald-trump-or-joe-biden
Those 4 states should give the first big clues on election night (though early numbers based on mail-in ballots may disproportionately favour Biden). If Biden wins Florida it's very probably all over for Trump.
Read @emilyctamkin on Florida: https://www.newstatesman.com/world/north-america/2020/08/us-election-swing-states-florida-factor
Read @emilyctamkin on Florida: https://www.newstatesman.com/world/north-america/2020/08/us-election-swing-states-florida-factor
